MLB Preview Sunday 21st April

MLB Preview Sunday 21st April

HOUSTON ASTROS (-185) with COLLIN MCHUGH pitching are strongly fancied tonight. CM is a solid fantasy play tonight, has 4 wins from 4 games, has a 29.1% K% rate against left-handed batters and 35.8% against righties, with an average of 6 innings pitched and 24.2 Draftkings Fantasy Points. They are up against Texas who have Shelby Miller pitching, who is close to the bottom of my pitcher rankings so the Astros batters could have a field day with a +1.4 run advantage so they look a great stack.

TAMPA BAY RAYS (-115) and the excellent TYLER GLASNOW takes the mound. He hss a 3.01 ERA at home and although Boston have a lot of power, they could struggle here.

NEW YORK YANKEES (-230) are the strongest favourites on the board with the excellent JAMES PAXTON piching at Yankee stadium against Kansas City. He has the highest K9 rate of 14.73 on the slate with a strike-rate of 34.8% and a 2.98 ERA at home. Even with Judge out, they can take this win. Jorge Lopez really struggles against lefties and again have stack potential.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-117) CLAYTON KERSHAW can nail the win here against Milwaukee. His 2.23 SIERA is the best on the slate and he should have the measure of the Brewers bats here.

4 x TREBLES and 1 ACCUMULATOR pays 8.25/1 with Paddy Power


Fantasy Batters To Watch – All of the Bats above +

NELSON CRUZ (OF) Minnesota
HOWIE KENDRICK (2B) Washington
ANTHONY RENDON (3B) Washington

MLB Preview Fri 19th April

MLB Preview Fri 19th April

The biggest slate of the MLB season so far tonight, sees 14 games, with only the Arizona v Cubs game on earlier in the day. I'm on track to get some baseball ratings from my model ready for the start of May, very exciting. JUSTIN VERLANDER ( HOU -190) is the obvious class pitcher with the Astros a very strong -190 favourites at Texas. Verlander is effective away from home with a 2.3 ERA on the road with a 32% K% rate. He has nothing really to fear from this Texan team, apart from perhaps Shin-Soo Choo, and is as effective against Lefties as he is against right-handed batters. The Astros have a 1.4 Run advantage against Texas and look a solid banker bet. GERMAN MARQUEZ (COL -120) is pitching at Coors Field, which is generally a hitter-friendly park. However, he is up against a fair few right-handed hitters tonight, and he has a huge 35% K% against right-handed hitters with a 2.85 ERA. He struggles a little more against left-handed batters so Bryce Harper could give him most trouble but not enough to prevent the win I feel, especially as opposing pitcher Vince Velasquez struggles against left-handed batters and with CHARLIE BLACKMON, David Dahl and the returning Ryan McMahon (2 HR's on return last night) – he will really struggle I feel. Jose Berrios (MIN -175) and Anibal Sanches (WAS -110) are high on my pitcher ratings but I feel face tougher matchups away against Baltimore and Miami respectively. ADAM WAINRIGHT (STL -140) has an easier time of things at home against the Mets. He does much better against right-handed batters, so only really has Michael Conforto to worry about who is swinging well but his 1.76 ERA against Lefties. Opposing pitcher Jason Vargas is one of the ones to swerve on this slate and you could even stack STL batters against him, with the likes of PAUL DEJONG in particular as well as Ozuna, Carpenter and Goldschmidt. Their 0.7 run advantage is conservative I feel. ROSS STRIPLING (LAD -109) in what looks a tighter matchup on paper, may not quite be as so. Ross Stripling is a solid pitcher, much better against lefties so he may have the measure of Yelich, Shaw and Moustakas here. He can land the win though because his opponent Jhoulys Chacin struggles, especially so against left-handed hitters and he faces the red-hot CODY BELLINGER, Joc Pederson and Max Muncy. They can land the win.

Suggested Bets – Accumulator and 4 Trebles – Pays 7.08 on Betfair -:



Batters To Watch in DFS

These are players that I believe are facing a good matchup against weaker pitchers and could be used in Daily Fantasy Sports -: St Louis Cardinals Stack – PAUL DEJONG (SS), MATT CARPENTER (3B), MARCEL OZUNA (OF)
Chicago White Sox – YOAN MONCADO (3B)
Toronto – JUSTIN SMOAK (1B)
Los Angeles Dodgers Stack – CODY BELLINGER (OF/1B), JOC PEDERSON (OF), MAX MUNCY (1B/3B)


A ‘Betting Exchange Profits’ Special – 2 New Tipsters Reviewed In BIG New SBC Magazine

A ‘Betting Exchange Profits’ Special – 2 New Tipsters Reviewed In BIG New SBC Magazine

The latest SBC Magazine (Issue 110) is out now and it's a Betting Exchange Profits special featuring reviews of 2 ‘Exchange Friendly' tipster services.

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Using GeeGeez Gold Instant Expert to find winners

Using GeeGeez Gold Instant Expert to find winners

I wrote in a recent blog post about the important of post-race analysis, using GeeGeez Gold to develop a strategy to find winners. There have been some decent selections the last few days using GeeGeez Gold Instant Expert and other data like sire and trainer stats to find decent winners.

ToBeFair was one such winner, who was strong across all Instant Expert categories and won at 15/2 at Cheltenham, having come off the back of a decent 2nd in the Pertemps at the festival, easily the best form on offer in the race. I was surprised he went off such a decent price – a few thought the race came too quickly, some preferred more ‘fashionable' yards – but form and stats are everything in this game.

As we can see from the above Instant Expert snapshot on PLACE stats, ToBeFair was proven on the going, course and had the most amount of places in this class and over this distance, so was a very strong selection.

Earlier in the day, I put up a couple of selections for free on Twitter, in a maiden race at Newmarket, CLERISY (winner at 8/1) and GENTLEWOMAN e/w (2nd at 16/1) and again you can see the strength of the Sire Data available on GeeGeez Gold cards, flagging both as being well-bred and strong stats contender in the conditions of today's race, as well as representing in-form trainers and jockeys with solid records at the course. It also highlighted the importance of taking Best Odds Guaranteed as the winner drifted and the 2nd was well-supported, Gentlewoman is definitely one to watch after that seriously promising debut and can be a ‘tracker' horse. Another feature of GeeGeez Gold.


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MOHAATHER found using GeeGeez Gold

MOHAATHER found using GeeGeez Gold

Saturday's Greenham Stakes looked a wide-open affair. The FormBet Tipster Service will be focusing on Group races and big handicaps through the season and, for subscribers, MOHAATHER was provided as a strong 2pt win bet for the race based on strength of GeeGeez Instant Expert and Angles. First of all using Instant Expert on GeeGeez Gold (above), as described in an earlier post, the selection was strong across all categories, going, class, distance, course and field size. The key though was that the trainer had a 41% win strike-rate and 61% place strike-rate with last-time out winners (see below) and the selection had won a key trial over C&D last backend in the Horris Hill Stakes. You can customise these stats categories to your liking to flag interesting runners each day.   This race highlighted the power of GeeGeez Gold when looking for strong stats selections in race and you can grab a 1-month trial for £1 here.


MLB Wednesday 10th April

MLB Wednesday 10th April

Well last night was a real blowout, especially so for Jacob De Grom who flopped badly. Minnesota have a WRC+ of 125 which means they create 25% more runs on average than other teams in the league. Still developing my model, which should be ready in a few weeks but perhaps highlights the need for value and why I am swerving Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard tonight, who is the 2nd-highest priced option on the slate. Of course, any pitcher can have a bad night, and it may be an over-reaction but I am erring on the side of caution. TAMBA BAY RAYS -147 have the excellent TYLER GLASNOW pitching for them and they have a 0.76 runs advantage over the White Sox, who really only have the elite batter YOAN MACADA and perhaps TIM ANDERSON in their lineup to worry Glasnow. However, Tampa Bay have been consistently hitting across the board and can land the win here. Ground-ball pitcher BRANDON WOODRUFF for MILWAUKEE BREWERS -125 can also have a good game against the Angels, with Trout doubtful after leaving the game with a groin strain last night. They have a run advantage of 0.42 with the likes of YELICH, GRANDAL and co. to give them an edge. JACK FLAHERTY pitches for the ST LOUIS CARDINALS -107 at home to the Dodgers. He has a 28.6% K% rate at home which jumps to over 31% against right-handed pitchers so I'll take him for the win tonight with notable hitters like PAUL GOLDSCHIMDT and PAUL DEJONG likely to rack up runs. For the final leg I'm going to look to HOUSTON ASTROS -113 against the Yankees with COLLIN McHUGH a marginal favourite here. He, along with Woodruff would be by choices for Starting Pitcher 2 with Glasnow. The accumulator pays 8.82 with Skybet and again I would throw in 3 trebles.

I expect to have a model ready in the next few weeks and will publish pitcher and batter ratings along with video previews through the season.

MLB Tuesday 9th April

MLB Tuesday 9th April

NEW YORK METS are -220 favourites and rightly so with the elite JACOB DE GROM pitching. He has started the year with 13 shutout innings and 24 strike-outs and is the best pitcher by far on the slate tonight. The Minnesota Twins lineup strike-out a lot and so the NYM can justify strong favouritism here with backup from hitters like BRANDON NIMMO and MICHAEL CONFORTO. SAN DIEGO PADRES -110 face little opposition from a poor San Francisco lineup here. JOEY LUCCHESI is the pitcher for the Padres and a good alternative for those wishing to save a bit of cash on De Grom in Fantasy contests.  The Padres have hitters like TATIS JR, MANNY MACHADO, WIL MYERS and HUNTER RENFROE who are all capable of taking advantage of Derek Holland.  AARON NOLA pitches for PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -133 tonight against Washington Nationals. BRYCE HARPER and RHYS HOSKINS are hitting well at the moment and have back up from th elikes of ANDREW MCCUTCHEN and JT REALMUTO. Rendon and Turner are the batters for the Nationals who could give him something to think about but he does well against right-handed hitters with a 26% K% rate. HOUSTON ASTROS -175 are favourites with the consistent GERRIT COLE taking the mound against a New York Yankees team who may not field their strongest lineup. The Astros have strength in their lineup with BREGMAN, BRANTLEY and SPRINGER of interest while ALTUVE can also swing a mean bat. ATLANTA BRAVES are 123 underdogs against Colorado at Coors Field but I fancy them to win this with ground-ball pitcher MAX FRIED on the plate who can get a number of strike-outs, especially against a team that strike-out a lot. There is a high runs total in this game but I fancy the bulk of them to come from Atlanta so we get a value option for a 5th leg here.   The accumulator pays 12.49 with Coral, worth throwing in 5 x 4-folds as well in case one team lets us down.  In the next few weeks I will be posting ratings/model projections and a regular Fantasy column/video and start tracking the points based results for all games.