I expect to have a model ready in the next few weeks and will publish pitcher and batter ratings along with video previews through the season.
The first race I want to take a look at is the Juvenile Hurdle won narrowly by PENTLAND HILLS at 11/4 from FAKIR D'OUDARIES. Starting with PACE analysis, we can see that prominent racers have been historically profitable in this race in the past with a 1.27 Impact Value producing 7 winners from 24 runners. In this instance, we can see that there are 5 horses that fall in between the prominent/mid-div category but these include the eventual 1st, 2nd and 5th. We can also look at Peter May's speed ratings to see where the early pace may come from, in this case it was very accurate for the front-running Fakir D'Oudaries. The pace stats were a negative for favourite Band Of Outlaws who was mid-div/hold-up, ran that way and never got a blow in – so we can also use PACE stats to look for negatives about potential false favourites. Next up we have the INSTANT EXPERT ANALYSIS for Horse and Trainer…first of all HORSE, sorted by Place stats. First key point to note is the number of places, PENTLAND HILLS was 3/6 on today's going, he was also 1/1 in the class, 1/1 at the distance and 4/6 in field size. Overall, those were the strongest combination of total place stats in the race, in terms of raw numbers, with perhaps Adjali the next strongest, who outran his odds when running into 4th. This alone shows the power of the Instant Expert feature. Now, moving onto the TRAINER WIN Instant Expert stats. We can see straight away that Henderson and Nicholls runners stand out on the going, class, course, distance and field. Winner Pentland Hills, and 4th Adjali, were trained by Henderson with the eventual 3rd Christopher Wood from the Nicholls yard. In this instance I also take a look at the overall percentages because sometimes the more established trainers will always show up top of these total figures and we can ignore the smaller or up-and-coming trainers In this case, Henderson still tops out in all the categories in percentage terms though. So overall Instant Expert clearly pointing towards Pentland Hills. Let's move onto the last couple of points of analysis – trainer/jockey course and recent form and OR/RPR and TS figures. Well, we can see that Henderson has excellent course form over the last year and 5-year period, while Daryl Jacob is not in great form in the last few weeks but does ride the course well, in general. However, apart from the odd positive stat for some runners, it's clear that PENTLAND HILLS trainer and jockey stats for the course and in the last 30-days for Nico De Boinville are standout. The final piece of the puzzle, is that the winner was top of the Official Ratings, RPR and Topspeed figures so was a standout ratings-wise and a solid wager at 11/4. The Foxhunters was a real-ratings race because there were no strong pace pointers for the race. The winner TOP WOOD was 5th best on official ratings and RPR figures but 2nd best on Topspeed and on Peter May's speed figures so was easy to pick out from an overall ratings perspective. On Instant Expert he also had the highest number of places on the going and a 14/1 winner could have been easily found. In the Aintree Hurdle I actually advised a win bet on SUPASUNDAE at 10/1 to subscribers to the FormBet Tipster Service, via WhatsApp – he was clear 3rd best on OR, RPR and TS ratings figures but it was on Instant Expert where the key hints were. He had the clear 2nd-highest places on the going, after the odds-on favourite, the 2nd-highest places in this class of race, joint-highest placings at the course, highest number of placings at the distance and 3rd in Field size. He was a clear standout on Instant Expert and with strong-ratings to back him up, was the obvious value in the race.
The Friday got off to a cracking start for INSTANT EXPERT. Sometimes it's as simple as adding up all the place points for a big-field race of this nature. Doing so would have given you 2 top contenders in THREE MUSKATEERS (11pts) and STERNRUBIN (11pts). They finished 1st and 4th at 8/1 and 16/1 respectively. The trainer stats also pointed towards two trainers in Nicky Henderson (unplaced) and Gordon Elliott (winner at 8/1) giving further strength behind the selection.
These are just a few examples of winners that could have been found last week using GeeGeez Gold. I also tipped up a strong contender in Lost In Translation at 3/1 while other strong stats winners that could have been discovered using the above methods were CHAMP 9/4, AUX PTITS SOIN 11/1, ORNUA 3/1, TIGER ROLL 4/1, CHIEF JUSTICE 13/2 and a few other decent placers.
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The Accumulator pays 6.33/1 with Skybet but I'd recommend a Trixie bet with them, just in case one team lets us down on the night.
DODGERS, ASTROS, RAYS & CARDINALS 2pt win @ 6.95/1 4-fold with Bet365 and 1pt @ 24.12 on the handicap with Betfair.
I've taken a look at the 2019 Grand National this Saturday 6th April, using GeeGeez Gold and their Aintree Festival Trends
First of all lets look at the key trends. I use an elimination method for trends analysis which means I eliminate all those who don't meet the strongest trend, then move onto the next strongest trend and keep going until I have a single runner or couple of shortlisted contenders. First up, lets have a look at the key trends, courtesy of GeeGeez.
So we start by eliminating all those who ran more than 34 Days ago (22/28), which rules out the following, it's easy to rule them out by clicking on the red X button -:
I always look to lose those that are easiest to weed out, so I don't need to delve too deeply. We can lose those who are aged 8 or younger as 23/28 winners were aged 9 or older and also lose those who are carrying more than 11-0 as 22/28 carried 10-13 or less.
That means Magic Of Light, Jury Duty, Monbeg Notorious, Blow By Blow for the age and Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Don Poli, Mala Beach, Minella Roco and Lake View Lad.
Those few trends alone have narrowed the field down to 18. We can also rule out those who have either not won over 3 miles+ as 26/28 have won over 3 miles+ over fences and eliminate those who have more than 6 Chase wins as 25/28 have no more than 6 chase wins. Out goes A Toi Phil, Mall Dini, Ultragold and Livelovelaugh.
We can also focus on the 19/28 stat of those who have between 4-6 wins over fences so out drops Noble Endeavour, Singlefarmpayment, Up For Review, Vintage Clouds, Folsom Blue, Bless The Wings, Joe Farrell and Isleofhopendreams.
17/28 finished in the Top-4 Last time out, that leaves us with just 2 shortlisted runners -:
WALK IN THE MILL 28/1
THE YOUNG MASTER 50/1
Walk In The Mill already won over these fences in the Becher Handicap Chase here in December while The Young Master was 3rd in the Kim Muir last time.
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In the latest update (watch this video), GeeGeez also includes the Racing Post RPR Form Ratings and Topspeed figures. Add in the existing Peter May Speed figures, Instant Expert, PACE and Draw analysis as well as a new Bet Tracker and you have the best piece of horse racing software available anywhere.
With the flat season starting this week, I thought I would take a look at some of the last year's renewal for clues.
The 2018 renewal was won by Addeybb but it often pays to look beyond the obvious for placed runners at bigger odds. For example, if Gabrial had a clearer run, he may well have finished closer than 4th at 20/1 and Mitchum Swagger ran well to take 3rd at 12/1. The biggest mistake punters make is often looking for a winner, rather than looking for the best value.
It's interesting to note that if we look at Instant Expert, and check the PLACE button, we get more detailed information for each runners win/places over the day's going, class, at the course, the distance, field size and their current rating compared to their last winning mark. It's important not just to look at % figures but look at total places for a bigger sample size and to provide potential each-way value.
So, here we can see that Mitchum Swagger had the highest places on the soft going, Gabrial also had the 4th highest number of placings (6) in this class and was 2/2 in terms of placed effort at the course, as well as the highest amount of places at the distance and both were on a lower mark than their highest last winning rating by 1lb and 4lb respectively, in fact Gabrial was the best handicapped horse in the race in that regard.
The runners were drawn 10, 9, 11 and 7 suggesting mid-drawn runners held sway in the softer going. 4 of the Top-4 were also amongst the highest 4 on official ratings in the field.
As we can see above the winner Addeybb's sire Pivotal had a positive Win record over the Flat-Middle distance category, as well as the trainer being a positive at the course over the last year and 5-year period and the jockey James Doyle was also in form over the last 14/30-day period – again these stats are like gold when considering a selection.
Gabrial was also in the Top-2 of the Racing Post RPR ratings, Top-3 of Topspeed and 2nd on Peter May's Speed Ratings. Gabrial's jockey Jamie Spencer was also a positive on recent and course form and trainer Richard Fahey was also in good recent form. Gabrial also was a C&D winner and had finished a very close 4th in the 2017 renewal.
The 2017 Renewal was won by BRAVERY at 20/1, beating the favourite Oh This is Us, with Donncha and Gabrial in 3rd and 4th.
This time, we can look to the amazing PACE stats for clues. I always like to click the ALL button to get as much data as possible. We can see from this that Hold-Up runners had historically done well at this trip and both GABRIAL and eventual winners BRAVERY showed up strongly in this respect. If we also look at the DRAW tab we can see that Hold-Up, High Drawn runners were profitable with a 2.04 AE and a 2.86 IV, producing 2 wins and 3 places, another clue pointing towards Bravery.
The DECS are not yet finalised for the 2019 Lincoln but it's interesting to note GABRIAL lines up again. He may be a little long in the tooth to win a race of this nature but I expect him to run well again. At this stage I quite like the look of THIRD TIME LUCKY at 25/1 who has 4/6 places on the current going, the highest number of 10 places in this class, 3rd highest number of places (9) at the mile distance and the 2nd highest number of places (4) in a big field size. He had a decent prep with a 3rd at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago and can give us a good run at a price.