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MLB Wednesday 10th April

MLB Wednesday 10th April

Well last night was a real blowout, especially so for Jacob De Grom who flopped badly. Minnesota have a WRC+ of 125 which means they create 25% more runs on average than other teams in the league. Still developing my model, which should be ready in a few weeks but perhaps highlights the need for value and why I am swerving Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard tonight, who is the 2nd-highest priced option on the slate. Of course, any pitcher can have a bad night, and it may be an over-reaction but I am erring on the side of caution. TAMBA BAY RAYS -147 have the excellent TYLER GLASNOW pitching for them and they have a 0.76 runs advantage over the White Sox, who really only have the elite batter YOAN MACADA and perhaps TIM ANDERSON in their lineup to worry Glasnow. However, Tampa Bay have been consistently hitting across the board and can land the win here. Ground-ball pitcher BRANDON WOODRUFF for MILWAUKEE BREWERS -125 can also have a good game against the Angels, with Trout doubtful after leaving the game with a groin strain last night. They have a run advantage of 0.42 with the likes of YELICH, GRANDAL and co. to give them an edge. JACK FLAHERTY pitches for the ST LOUIS CARDINALS -107 at home to the Dodgers. He has a 28.6% K% rate at home which jumps to over 31% against right-handed pitchers so I'll take him for the win tonight with notable hitters like PAUL GOLDSCHIMDT and PAUL DEJONG likely to rack up runs. For the final leg I'm going to look to HOUSTON ASTROS -113 against the Yankees with COLLIN McHUGH a marginal favourite here. He, along with Woodruff would be by choices for Starting Pitcher 2 with Glasnow. The accumulator pays 8.82 with Skybet and again I would throw in 3 trebles.

I expect to have a model ready in the next few weeks and will publish pitcher and batter ratings along with video previews through the season.

MLB Tuesday 9th April

MLB Tuesday 9th April

NEW YORK METS are -220 favourites and rightly so with the elite JACOB DE GROM pitching. He has started the year with 13 shutout innings and 24 strike-outs and is the best pitcher by far on the slate tonight. The Minnesota Twins lineup strike-out a lot and so the NYM can justify strong favouritism here with backup from hitters like BRANDON NIMMO and MICHAEL CONFORTO. SAN DIEGO PADRES -110 face little opposition from a poor San Francisco lineup here. JOEY LUCCHESI is the pitcher for the Padres and a good alternative for those wishing to save a bit of cash on De Grom in Fantasy contests.  The Padres have hitters like TATIS JR, MANNY MACHADO, WIL MYERS and HUNTER RENFROE who are all capable of taking advantage of Derek Holland.  AARON NOLA pitches for PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -133 tonight against Washington Nationals. BRYCE HARPER and RHYS HOSKINS are hitting well at the moment and have back up from th elikes of ANDREW MCCUTCHEN and JT REALMUTO. Rendon and Turner are the batters for the Nationals who could give him something to think about but he does well against right-handed hitters with a 26% K% rate. HOUSTON ASTROS -175 are favourites with the consistent GERRIT COLE taking the mound against a New York Yankees team who may not field their strongest lineup. The Astros have strength in their lineup with BREGMAN, BRANTLEY and SPRINGER of interest while ALTUVE can also swing a mean bat. ATLANTA BRAVES are 123 underdogs against Colorado at Coors Field but I fancy them to win this with ground-ball pitcher MAX FRIED on the plate who can get a number of strike-outs, especially against a team that strike-out a lot. There is a high runs total in this game but I fancy the bulk of them to come from Atlanta so we get a value option for a 5th leg here.   The accumulator pays 12.49 with Coral, worth throwing in 5 x 4-folds as well in case one team lets us down.  In the next few weeks I will be posting ratings/model projections and a regular Fantasy column/video and start tracking the points based results for all games.  


Post-Race Analysis using GeeGeez Gold in 5 Simple Steps

Post-Race Analysis using GeeGeez Gold in 5 Simple Steps

One of the biggest failings punters make, is not looking back and reviewing races, meetings etc to see how the winners ‘could' have been found. Something I will be doing through the flat season will be looking back on a few of the big races each weekend and seeing how the winners could potentially have been found using GeeGeez Gold. This kind of review can help with future race analysis and give strong pointers to future winners or at least alternative approaches to consider. I thought i would do this for the recent Aintree festival, picking out a few key stats and figures from some races. POST-RACE ANALYSIS PROCESS My approach for post-analysis of a race, is in 5 key stages but there are of course other factors to consider, including recent form etc 1) PACE/DRAW analysis 2) INSTANT EXPERT HORSE conditions, sorted by PLACE, ALL data 3) INSTANT EXPERT TRAINER conditions, sorted by WIN, 2-Year data 4) MAIN RACECARD TRAINER/JOCKEY course form and KEY REPORT STATS 5) SPEED, RPR, TS and OR figures Now, PACE analysis for me is overplayed in horse racing, simply because past pace figures for a runner cannot ever be guaranteed, as each race is a unique and different make-up each time, but they can provide some ‘guidance' at best. They are perhaps more useful on the flat, particularly when including the draw and in sprint races. Having said that, the GeeGeez Gold PACE figures are the best online, they not only are well calculated, but they give a positive indication of historical pace runners and a visual representation. After looking at PACE, I move onto the amazing INSTANT EXPERT tab, I always select PLACE stats for the HORSE, over it's whole career, to give a bigger sample size of a horse's ability to act on going, distance, class, course etc. I go through each category, sorting my PLACE as percentage figures with small samples are misleading and I prefer to see more detailed figures. I then select the TRAINER data and select 2-Year WIN form to give an idea of a trainer's record under today's conditions. Occasionally, I will select the SIRE data, but more-so in maiden races on the flat than over the jumps, where there is less ‘form' to go on. I move on next to the main racecard and look for any jockeys and trainers in form over the last 14/30 days, at the course, and any key reporting stats. These are all really easy to identify on the GeeGeez racecards at a glance Finally, I sort runners by Official Rating (OR) and also we now have the ability to sort by Racing Post Rating (RPR) and Topspeed (TS). Now, these figures are not something to blindly follow but they can highlight strong contenders in races. So, lets get on with looking at a few races to see how the post-race analysis is done.

The first race I want to take a look at is the Juvenile Hurdle won narrowly by PENTLAND HILLS at 11/4 from FAKIR D'OUDARIES. Starting with PACE analysis, we can see that prominent racers have been historically profitable in this race in the past with a 1.27 Impact Value producing 7 winners from 24 runners. In this instance, we can see that there are 5 horses that fall in between the prominent/mid-div category but these include the eventual 1st, 2nd and 5th. We can also look at Peter May's speed ratings to see where the early pace may come from, in this case it was very accurate for the front-running Fakir D'Oudaries. The pace stats were a negative for favourite Band Of Outlaws who was mid-div/hold-up, ran that way and never got a blow in – so we can also use PACE stats to look for negatives about potential false favourites.   Next up we have the INSTANT EXPERT ANALYSIS for Horse and Trainer…first of all HORSE, sorted by Place stats. First key point to note is the number of places, PENTLAND HILLS was 3/6 on today's going, he was also 1/1 in the class, 1/1 at the distance and 4/6 in field size. Overall, those were the strongest combination of total place stats in the race, in terms of raw numbers, with perhaps Adjali the next strongest, who outran his odds when running into 4th. This alone shows the power of the Instant Expert feature.   Now, moving onto the TRAINER WIN Instant Expert stats. We can see straight away that Henderson and Nicholls runners stand out on the going, class, course, distance and field. Winner Pentland Hills, and 4th Adjali, were trained by Henderson with the eventual 3rd Christopher Wood from the Nicholls yard. In this instance I also take a look at the overall percentages because sometimes the more established trainers will always show up top of these total figures and we can ignore the smaller or up-and-coming trainers In this case,  Henderson still tops out in all the categories in percentage terms though. So overall Instant Expert clearly pointing towards Pentland Hills.   Let's move onto the last couple of points of analysis – trainer/jockey course and recent form and OR/RPR and TS figures. Well, we can see that Henderson has excellent course form over the last year and 5-year period, while Daryl Jacob is not in great form in the last few weeks but does ride the course well, in general. However, apart from the odd positive stat for some runners, it's clear that PENTLAND HILLS trainer and jockey stats for the course and in the last 30-days for Nico De Boinville are standout. The final piece of the puzzle, is that the winner was top of the Official Ratings, RPR and Topspeed figures so was a standout ratings-wise and a solid wager at 11/4. The Foxhunters was a real-ratings race because there were no strong pace pointers for the race. The winner TOP WOOD was 5th best on official ratings and RPR figures but 2nd best on Topspeed and on Peter May's speed figures so was easy to pick out from an overall ratings perspective. On Instant Expert he also had the highest number of places on the going and a 14/1 winner could have been easily found. In the Aintree Hurdle I actually advised a win bet on SUPASUNDAE at 10/1 to subscribers to the FormBet Tipster Service, via WhatsApp – he was clear 3rd best on OR, RPR and TS ratings figures but it was on Instant Expert where the key hints were. He had the clear 2nd-highest places on the going, after the odds-on favourite, the 2nd-highest places in this class of race, joint-highest placings at the course, highest number of placings at the distance and 3rd in Field size. He was a clear standout on Instant Expert and with strong-ratings to back him up, was the obvious value in the race.


The Friday got off to a cracking start for INSTANT EXPERT. Sometimes it's as simple as adding up all the place points for a big-field race of this nature. Doing so would have given you 2 top contenders in THREE MUSKATEERS (11pts) and STERNRUBIN (11pts). They finished 1st and 4th at 8/1 and 16/1 respectively. The trainer stats also pointed towards two trainers in Nicky Henderson (unplaced) and Gordon Elliott (winner at 8/1) giving further strength behind the selection.    

These are just a few examples of winners that could have been found last week using GeeGeez Gold. I also tipped up a strong contender in Lost In Translation at 3/1 while other strong stats winners that could have been discovered using the above methods were CHAMP 9/4, AUX PTITS SOIN 11/1, ORNUA 3/1, TIGER ROLL 4/1, CHIEF JUSTICE 13/2 and a few other decent placers.

If you are not using a tool like GeeGeez Gold to analyse races and find winners then you are at a serious disadvantage to an educated crowd of punters and race analysts. You can check out GeeGeez Gold for 1-month for just £1 here or at the banner below.

MLB Saturday 6th April

MLB Saturday 6th April

3/4 results right yesterday with only the St Louis Cardinals letting us down and promising rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. producing the decisive play for the Padres. Again, an indication of some of the early-season form taking time to settle down. It may be better then to produce a trixie bet so that doubles and trebles result in a profit if one team let us down. Betfair will also refund stakes if one team lets us down so could be the best option for these bets. The CLEVELAND INDIANS are strong -180 favourites at home to the Toronto Blue Jays with Carlos Carrasco a solid pitching option. A lot depends on the hot bats of FRANCISCO LINDOR and JOSE RAMIREZ but other players like CARLOS SANTANA and HANLEY RAMIREZ have shown early promise and they notched a win over the Blue Jays yesterday. Back with home field advantage they can prove a decent first leg. CODY BELLINGER has started the season swinging a hot bat and hit a 3-run homer as the LOS ANGELES DODGERS beat Colorado 10-6 yesterday. WALKER BUEHLER is one of the best pitchers on the slate and with the other batters MAX MUNCY and RUSSELL MARTIN also playing well, they can get another win as -123 favourites in this hitter-friendly ballpark. The WASHINGTON NATIONALS -110 welcome PATRICK CORBIN to the mound who ranks in my Top-5 pitchers on the slate and with ANTHONY RENDON and TREA TURNER swinging well, they can win against an average New York Mets team. For the final leg I look to the NEW YORK YANKEES -165 favourites against the Baltimore Orioles. Veteran J.A. HAPP takes the mound and will get plenty of support from a strong offence. DIDI GREGORIOS is interesting if he gets the start ahead of GLEYBER TORRES but with the likes of AARON HICK, AARON JUDGE, LUKE VOIT and GIANCARLO STANTON in the lineup, Orioles pitcher Dylan Bundy could struggle against so much power.   

The Accumulator pays 6.33/1 with Skybet but I'd recommend a Trixie bet with them, just in case one team lets us down on the night.

MLB Friday 5th April

MLB Friday 5th April

The Major League Baseball season started last week, and while it takes a while for ‘form' to settle down I thought I would highlight a few key games and players to watch over the weekend games. Eventually, advice will be provided via the private FormBet Tipster Service, via WhatsApp. Shocks can and do occur in the early season so keep stakes small if you are playing and the information will build as I have more time through the year to post more detailed stats and analysis.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ 5/7 – The Dodgers are away but they are at Coors Field, which is a hitter friendly park. With the likes of JUSTIN TURNER (one of the best hitters on the slate and is equally effective against left or right-handed pitchers) , CHRIS TAYLOR, JOC PEDERSON and CODY BELLINGER in the line-up, they could have a field day, backed up by my high-rated pitcher KENTA MAEDA who could be a value pitcher play in Fantasy contests. HOUSTON ASTROS @ 10/17 – COLLIN MCHUGH (pictured above) is one of the best pitchers on the slate with a 0.91 Siera, 47.4% K% (strikeout rate) and 18.5% Swinging Strike-rate. ALEX BREGMAN is a batter to keep an eye on with 73 RBI (runs batted in) and 23 home-runs against right-handed pitchers. MICHAEL BRANTLEY is another with a good record against righties with 134 hits and 63 RBI against right-handed hitters and just an 8.4% K% rate.  TAMPA BAY RAYS @ 4/5 – Focusing on pitching, TYLER GLASNOW is one of the best pitchers on the slate and up against a poor San Francisco offense, so he could rack up some points on the Fantasy sites. For the TB offense, TOMMY PHAM is of interest, one of the best hitters and especially so against right-handed pitchers with 108 hits resulting in 15 Home Runs and 50 RBI's. ST LOUIS CARDINALS @ 4/7 are one of the strongest favourites on the main slate and young pitcher JACK FLAHERTY is a solid option for starting pitcher on the Fantasy sites. With HARRISON BADER, PAUL GOLDSCHIMDT and MATT CARPENTER all solid against left-handed pitchers, they are one of the sure fire bets tonight. All 4 teams can be backed in a 4-fold with Bet365 paying 6.95/1 for the accumulator. You can also back all 4 on the handicap with a -1.5 run at 24.12 with Betfair.  

DODGERS, ASTROS, RAYS & CARDINALS 2pt win @ 6.95/1 4-fold with Bet365 and 1pt @ 24.12 on the handicap with Betfair.

Grand National Trends Picks

Grand National Trends Picks

I've taken a look at the 2019 Grand National this Saturday 6th April, using GeeGeez Gold and their Aintree Festival Trends

First of all lets look at the key trends. I use an elimination method for trends analysis which means I eliminate all those who don't meet the strongest trend, then move onto the next strongest trend and keep going until I have a single runner or couple of shortlisted contenders. First up, lets have a look at the key trends, courtesy of GeeGeez.

So we start by eliminating all those who ran more than 34 Days ago (22/28), which rules out the following, it's easy to rule them out by clicking on the red X button -:

I always look to lose those that are easiest to weed out, so I don't need to delve too deeply. We can lose those who are aged 8 or younger as 23/28 winners were aged 9 or older and also lose those who are carrying more than 11-0 as 22/28 carried 10-13 or less.

That means Magic Of Light, Jury Duty, Monbeg Notorious, Blow By Blow for the age and Anibale Fly, Tiger Roll, Don Poli, Mala Beach, Minella Roco and Lake View Lad.

Those few trends alone have narrowed the field down to 18. We can also rule out those who have either not won over 3 miles+ as 26/28 have won over 3 miles+ over fences and eliminate those who have more than 6 Chase wins as 25/28 have no more than 6 chase wins. Out goes A Toi Phil, Mall Dini, Ultragold and Livelovelaugh.

We can also focus on the 19/28 stat of those who have between 4-6 wins over fences so out drops Noble Endeavour, Singlefarmpayment, Up For Review, Vintage Clouds, Folsom Blue, Bless The Wings, Joe Farrell and Isleofhopendreams.

17/28 finished in the Top-4 Last time out, that leaves us with just 2 shortlisted runners -:



Walk In The Mill already won over these fences in the Becher Handicap Chase here in December while The Young Master was 3rd in the Kim Muir last time.

Lincoln Handicap Last Few Years Analysis Using GeeGeez Gold and a 25/1 Bet

Lincoln Handicap Last Few Years Analysis Using GeeGeez Gold and a 25/1 Bet

Matt Bisogno at GeeGeez has put together a fantastic piece of horse racing software. In my opinion it easily beats the likes of Racing Post, Proform, Raceform hands-down in terms of both versatility, ease of access to key, detailed information and, most importantly, value for money. You can pick up a 30-day subscription to GeeGeez Gold for just £1 for a full 30-days here.

In the latest update (watch this video), GeeGeez also includes the Racing Post RPR Form Ratings and Topspeed figures. Add in the existing Peter May Speed figures, Instant Expert, PACE and Draw analysis as well as a new Bet Tracker and you have the best piece of horse racing software available anywhere.

With the flat season starting this week, I thought I would take a look at some of the last year's renewal for clues.

The 2018 renewal was won by Addeybb but it often pays to look beyond the obvious for placed runners at bigger odds. For example, if Gabrial had a clearer run, he may well have finished closer than 4th at 20/1 and Mitchum Swagger ran well to take 3rd at 12/1. The biggest mistake punters make is often looking for a winner, rather than looking for the best value.

It's interesting to note that if we look at Instant Expert, and check the PLACE button, we get more detailed information for each runners win/places over the day's going, class, at the course, the distance, field size and their current rating compared to their last winning mark. It's important not just to look at % figures but look at total places for a bigger sample size and to provide potential each-way value.

So, here we can see that Mitchum Swagger had the highest places on the soft going, Gabrial also had the 4th highest number of placings (6) in this class and was 2/2 in terms of placed effort at the course, as well as the highest amount of places at the distance and both were on a lower mark than their highest last winning rating by 1lb and 4lb respectively, in fact Gabrial was the best handicapped horse in the race in that regard.

The runners were drawn 10, 9, 11 and 7 suggesting mid-drawn runners held sway in the softer going. 4 of the Top-4 were also amongst the highest 4 on official ratings in the field.

As we can see above the winner Addeybb's sire Pivotal had a positive Win record over the Flat-Middle distance category, as well as the trainer being a positive at the course over the last year and 5-year period and the jockey James Doyle was also in form over the last 14/30-day period – again these stats are like gold when considering a selection.

Gabrial was also in the Top-2 of the Racing Post RPR ratings, Top-3 of Topspeed and 2nd on Peter May's Speed Ratings. Gabrial's jockey Jamie Spencer was also a positive on recent and course form and trainer Richard Fahey was also in good recent form. Gabrial also was a C&D winner and had finished a very close 4th in the 2017 renewal.

The 2017 Renewal was won by BRAVERY at 20/1, beating the favourite Oh This is Us, with Donncha and Gabrial in 3rd and 4th.

This time, we can look to the amazing PACE stats for clues. I always like to click the ALL button to get as much data as possible. We can see from this that Hold-Up runners had historically done well at this trip and both GABRIAL and eventual winners BRAVERY showed up strongly in this respect. If we also look at the DRAW tab we can see that Hold-Up, High Drawn runners were profitable with a 2.04 AE and a 2.86 IV, producing 2 wins and 3 places, another clue pointing towards Bravery.

The DECS are not yet finalised for the 2019 Lincoln but it's interesting to note GABRIAL lines up again. He may be a little long in the tooth to win a race of this nature but I expect him to run well again. At this stage I quite like the look of THIRD TIME LUCKY at 25/1 who has 4/6 places on the current going, the highest number of 10 places in this class, 3rd highest number of places (9) at the mile distance and the 2nd highest number of places (4) in a big field size. He had a decent prep with a 3rd at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago and can give us a good run at a price.