Using the trends elimination method, we arrive at a Trends selection after just 4 strong trends.
15/16 – Had won a Group 1 race before
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
The selection is best-priced 33/1 shot TALISMANIC. Last year’s Breeders Cup turf winner looks overpriced for Andre Fabre with Mickael Barcelona taking the ride and is well worth an each-way bet. He prepped for this with an easy win in the Prix Gontaut and a 2nd in the Prix Foy, a race Fabre has used as a prep with previous Arc winners Carnegie, Hurricane Run. Of course he also had the impressive winner that day Waldgeist, who looks a more likely winner, but we need to be consistent when following a trends based approach and we know the runner-up has Group 1 class on the day.
The big handicap on Saturday is the Challenge Cup at Ascot but using the trends elimination method there are two qualifiers, interestingly they are drawn in the lowest and the highest stalks to give coverage across the track. The first is Ripp Orff in stall 1 at 8/1 but I prefer the Mark Johnston runner in stall 18, LAKE VOLTA at 33/1.
However, I am going to throw another in the mix, last year’s 3rd-placed finisher RAISING SAND is a pound lower than last year, 4lb’s if we take into account the jockeys claim. Interestingly the 1st and 2nd last year, Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters, filled the same places in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes so that form looks rock solid. Add to that the fact that Raising Sand also has two wins at Ascot, Trainer Jamie Osborne is an excellent 8/36 at the track with his handicap runners over the last 5 years with a +62pts profit, 171% Yield, 3.46 A/E and 3.58 impact value AND Raising Sand’s sire Oasis Dream is excellent at Ascot, with his progeny showing a 15% strike-rate, 41pts profit and 31% Yield. I took 12’s when I discovered this the other day but the best-priced 10/1 is still worth a wager given these strong stats, found thanks to GeeGeez Gold Query Tool.
Tom Lacey has been one of the trainers I’ve followed with massive success over the last year, especially so in both handicap hurdles and handicap Chase contests. He is a proper old-school National Hunt trainer who still rides out half-dozen or so lots each morning and never sends a horse to the races unless it’s in peak condition.
Witness his record in handicap Chase and handicap hurdle contests over the last 3 seasons with improvements in win and place strike-rates, profit and ROI, he clearly knows what he is doing.
All this found using the excellent GeeGeez Query Tool, be sure to signup to GeeGeez Gold while there is still 20% off till next week.
If we drill down a bit deeper, we can see most of the damage has been done when 3 jockeys have been on board, Robert Dunne, Richard Johnson and Tom Scudamore.
Breaking it down we can see the bulk of the profits and higher yield comes in handicap hurdale races, despite his strike-rate being higher in handicap chase contests.
By combining handicap hurdle races with one of the aforementioned 3 jockeys, we give ourselves a very selective system indeed showing a near 34% strike-rate, +94pts profit and 152% Yield over the last 3 years!
This shows the power of GeeGeez Gold and adding this in as an “angle” enables you to track qualifiers automatically on the racecards and using the GeeGeez Query Tool. Check out the video below for more detailed information on how I have used the Query Tool to build 13 systems for both the jumps and all-weather seasons. The system rules again -:
Handicap Hurdle Races Tom Lacey Runners Richard Johnson, Robert Dunne or Tom Scudamore riding
The video below again shows how versatile GeeGeez Gold is, and I highly recommend a subscription as it beats the pants over competitors that are 3 or 4 times the price.
Unless you've been living under a rock in a cave on the moon this past week, you've probably seen or heard something from Matt Bisogno about either Trainer Track Stats (TTS) or Geegeez Gold.
As well as giving away TTS, Matt's just re-opened Geegeez Gold with a very special offer. Not only is he heavily discounting subscriptions to Gold, voted the best betting website for the past two years in a row, but he's also offering fast movers the chance to have a one to one consultation with him.
In case you don't know, Geegeez Gold is a comprehensive racing and betting package that comprises state-of-the-art racecards, form tools, reports and a lot more. It's easy to navigate, easy to use, and is almost certain to move your betting up a notch.
The one to one chats with Matt will go quickly, so if you'd like the chance to speak with him about your betting, Gold, or whatever (within reason!), go here now
As well as Geegeez Gold, Matt's delivering four ‘improve your betting' webinars for subscribers over the course of the next month; and you can try his service out for as little as one pound.
I'm not sure how long this offer will be open for but what I do know is that, when it closes, he's increasing his prices by 20%. That's not a marketing tactic – quite the opposite in fact – but it is a fact.
So if you're serious about enjoying your betting more, and making it pay, you owe it to yourself to check out Geegeez Gold and this very special offer. Click here to find out more
Since I finished my own ratings service, I have found GeeGeez Gold invaluable to determine winning trends bets this flat season and have developed over a dozen systems for the jumps and All-Weather season, which can run alongside TTS qualifiers. More about that at the weekend but I heartily recommend this as a value form book, racecard and statistic/system building tool – far, far better value than other online form services, that can give you a huge edge in your betting.
p.s. prices WILL increase next week by 20%, but you will never pay a penny more than your discounted offer price for as long as you remain a subscriber.
While I have been in Spain the last 3 weeks I have built a number of potentially very profitable jumps and All-Weather systems using GeeGeez Gold Query Tool, which is a fantastic piece of kit. More of that later.
However, I’ve also had a lot of success using the PACE and the DRAW tabs as outlined and explained by Matt Bisogno from GeeGeez in a recent, excellent video for those who signed up to download Trainer Track Stats. This will also be a huge part of my betting armoury this forthcoming jumps season so be sure to grab your free copy.
For those who haven’t had the good fortune to watch that particular video, I’ve recorded a very quick one of my own with a few races at Kempton in mind tonight. The first is at 8:45 where there is a very strong PACE/DRAW value each-way bet to be had, with GLAMOROUS DREAM at a best priced 20/1.
You can watch my brief video here explaining why I fancy Glamorous Dream to outrun her very big odds and witness the power of the PACE and DRAW info on GeeGeez racecards.
There is also a strong qualifying front-runner in the 9:15 DREAM CATCHING who has an advantageous draw in stall 12, so is well worth an each-way bet at 12/1. High drawn front runners have a 50% strike-rate, 4.25 A/E and a level stakes profit of +31pts.
SHEPHERDS PURSE may contest that lead though and at 14/1 is also worthy of a cover bet for the precise same reasons, despite not having as favourable a draw. Again, overall 6f front runners have a massive 28% strike rate, 3.11 impact value and +61pts profit so he could give Dream Catching most to do if overcoming that slightly negative mid-berth over this trip.
Before I get stuck into the trends selections for this weekends big handicaps, be sure to download the FREE TraIner Track Stats Jumps Season 2018/19 bible. My good friend Matt Bisogno has put together an awesome list of trainers to follow along with a very informative video on how these stats were compiled and some exciting news on how you can track them automatically and a very special offer. £18k+ profit over the last 5 years at Betfair SP is something to be really interested in and I’ll be following 5es this over the jumps season combined with trends picks.
Onto Saturday’s trends, and one of the final big flat handicaps on Saturday, the Cambridgeshire where there is a clear trends qualifier, but before that let’s have a look at the two big handicaps at Haydock. There are also some Group races and you can always follow the trends here and shortlist them using GeeGeez Gold racecards, which you can subscribe to for just £1 for the first month.
Another nice priced 25/1 winner last weekend, let’s see if we can keep this good run going. I’ve taken a look at the trends for all the key handicaps on Saturday. All trends and analysis performed using GeeGeez Gold, get a 30-day trial for just £1 here.
Newbury 1:45 STYLEHUNTER 6/1 & BERINGER 12/1
Ayr 2:00 MIKMAK 12/1
Ayr 2:40 DAKOTA GOLD 9/1 & PRIVATE MATTER 25/1
Ayr 3:50 SUMMERGHAND 33/1
The Ayr Gold Cup posed a slight conundrum, weeded it down to 4 horses, Ice Age, Kimberella, Summerghand and Golden Apollo but then we have a conundrum due to none of them hitting both of these 10/16 trends -:
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
So in this instance, we look at the next lot of trends down, where only the 5-year old Summerghand hits -:
9/16 – Rated 90-100
9/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/16 – Had raced at Ayr before
it would not surprise me to see Golden Apollo run well if there is a low draw bias, especially as it’s the right age, has raced at Ayr and is in the right ratings band so could be worth a win cover.
No trends for today’s Bronze Cup but I do like Hanagan on a front-runner and they outperform in this race, so GABRIAL THE DEVIL at 10/1 can go well. Best of luck with your bets.