I am in Thailand at the moment, enjoying spending my winnings from a few big-priced trends winners this season and from the last decade of betting. I had a spare 15 minutes so took a look at the Golden Jubilee and Wokingham Stakes this Saturday using the trends elimination method and GeeGeez Gold racecards. It took me 15 minutes and here they are.
This will be the last trends post for a while as I am off travelling for a few months. However, I have outlined how I do the elimination method with the GeeGeez Trendsand Racecards, so you can do them yourself to arrive at selections within a few minutes. I've done a brief video below showing how quickly you can shortlist contenders.
A non-runner and a loser on Thursday but we should all still be well ahead this year on trends. Friday is a bit quieter and I am out all day. The trends are all over the place for the Yorkshire Cup, so I've just taken a look at the big handicap and there is a clear trends pick.
Nice profit on Wednesday thanks to Hamada scoring at 5/2 for the 2pt win bet. So far I am really happy about the trends performance. There are a couple of decent events on Thursday and I've run the trends and arrived at a few nice selections and an ante-post Derby Punt. All I ask is you check out GeeGeez Gold as there are profits like this to be found every day using their tools and racecards.
YORK 2:20 ORIENT CLASS 1pt e/w @ 28/1
The Dante at 3:30 is reduced down to Crossed Baton, Mildenberger and Nordic Lights. Although I like the look of the Nordic Lights, I'm going to go with the Gosden runner CROSSED BATON due to the yard's recent record in the race (2 of last 3) and his decent win last time out in the Epsom Derby Trial. In fact, given that the Dante winner has placed 8 times from 16 in the Derby and 4 have won, I think it's worth an each-way punt for that race too.
I like this style of bet as if Crossed Baton flops, then we likely lose 3pts, worse case scenario. If he wins the Dante but loses the Derby then we make some money, if he wins the Dante or runs very close and places in the Derby we make profit and if he wins both races, we are quids in…it's a calculated risk but he has some trends in his favour and I also like the breeding and the combo of Gosden/Dettori team as I think they feed off each other.
What another great result last week with a 66/1 advised each-way bet hitting the frame. The trends are holding up really well this season and you should all be making some decent profits, I know I am and am loving the ease at picking out bets using GeeGeez racecards with their TV trends. Don't forget you can signup to GeeGeez Gold here for just an initial £1 for the first 30-days – there will be some more videos coming soon focusing on the Query Tool to develop flat systems.
So, on Wednesday there is a small field handicap and a big-field handicap. Now you CAN also look at the GP2 and GP3 races on the card using GeeGeez TV Trends but I prefer to stick to the handicaps and Group 1's.
York 2:20 HAMADA 2pts win @ 5/2
York 2:55 GOLDEN APOLLO 1pt e/w @ 16/1
Hamada is a clear-cut trends pick and looks very strong. The 2:55 was not quite so clear cut. The fact that most winners were priced in single figures does cause a big of concern, but none of those runners had hit the previous, stronger trends. Tomily showed up as a contender but the fact that he is 0/2 at York and is on the cusp of the low draw AND the fact that the selection is already a C&D winner gives him the edge.
On my way back from a week of tree conservation work (and hugging!) and it was nice to see that we managed to nails 10/1 winner last week as well as the 2000 Guineas winner. I'm finding it do easy to use the trends with Geegeez Gold racecards, so much so that I have run the trends for today's big handicaps on the train back to civilization.
The Swinton is a clear trends pick whereas the Victoria Cup is less so and although I got that race down to two runners, decided to use the double-figure draw stat (last 5 winners) to get a final selection.
Haydock 3:10 ALL SET TO GO 1pt e/w @ 20/1
Ascot 4:00 SEA FOX 1pt e/w @ 66/1
Ascot 4:00 VIA SERENDIPITY 1pt win @ 20/1
The other shortlisted contender in the Victoria Cup was Via Serendipity who may be worth a small win cover at 20/1 to give low draw coverage.
I'm off for a conservation project in the Caledonian forest in Scotland for a week, with no wi-fi and mobile signal so there will be no updates for next weekend and I won't even know if any of these have won for a week…but I want to see if I can capture some Guineas cash this Saturday to pay for my week away. First of all I have looked at the trends for the Spring Lodge Stakes Handicap and the 2000 Guineas itself.
The 1000 Guineas for me is a bit of a lottery at times, I still fondly remember the 40/1 tip I gave a few years ago on Blue Bunting for Godolphin so I'm going to side with a pure gut suggestion on Sunday for a Galileo filly that is not AOB-trained.
Hits all the key trends and I like Godolphin runners at Newmarket.
The 2000 Guineas is also straightforward from a trends perspective and although Elarqaam from the Mark Johnston yard makes a shortlist, it just fails due to the amazing record of Aidan O'Brien his contender has the edge. However, the fact that 11/16 winners were having their first run of the season actually tilts the pendulum towards his ‘perhaps' perceived 2nd string -: