On my way back from a week of tree conservation work (and hugging!) and it was nice to see that we managed to nails 10/1 winner last week as well as the 2000 Guineas winner. I'm finding it do easy to use the trends with Geegeez Gold racecards, so much so that I have run the trends for today's big handicaps on the train back to civilization.
The Swinton is a clear trends pick whereas the Victoria Cup is less so and although I got that race down to two runners, decided to use the double-figure draw stat (last 5 winners) to get a final selection.
Haydock 3:10 ALL SET TO GO 1pt e/w @ 20/1
Ascot 4:00 SEA FOX 1pt e/w @ 66/1
Ascot 4:00 VIA SERENDIPITY 1pt win @ 20/1
The other shortlisted contender in the Victoria Cup was Via Serendipity who may be worth a small win cover at 20/1 to give low draw coverage.
I'm off for a conservation project in the Caledonian forest in Scotland for a week, with no wi-fi and mobile signal so there will be no updates for next weekend and I won't even know if any of these have won for a week…but I want to see if I can capture some Guineas cash this Saturday to pay for my week away. First of all I have looked at the trends for the Spring Lodge Stakes Handicap and the 2000 Guineas itself.
The 1000 Guineas for me is a bit of a lottery at times, I still fondly remember the 40/1 tip I gave a few years ago on Blue Bunting for Godolphin so I'm going to side with a pure gut suggestion on Sunday for a Galileo filly that is not AOB-trained.
Hits all the key trends and I like Godolphin runners at Newmarket.
The 2000 Guineas is also straightforward from a trends perspective and although Elarqaam from the Mark Johnston yard makes a shortlist, it just fails due to the amazing record of Aidan O'Brien his contender has the edge. However, the fact that 11/16 winners were having their first run of the season actually tilts the pendulum towards his ‘perhaps' perceived 2nd string -:
The last big chase of the season is at Sandown on Saturday, the Bet365 Gold Cup Chase. It's a real puzzle with 21-runners but that is the beauty of using the elimination trends method, you can narrow down the field pretty quickly. Let's do a full rundown using GeeGeez TV Trends and their GeeGeez Gold racecards to quickly eliminate runners that don't meet the key trends. The elimination method is really straightforward. You start with the strongest trends and rule out runners that don't hit them, then work your way down until you are left with one or two selections.
15/15 Had raced within the last 56 days. So clearly a horse needs to have some level of recent fitness. That rules out Regal Encore (70 Days), Rock The Kasbah (98 days), Present Man (83 Days), Domesday Book (408 Days), Caroles Destrier (66 Days), Relentless Dream (63 Days) and Henllan Harri (119 Days). So already we have eliminated a third of the field.
12/15 Carried 11-0 or less in weight. That only rules out top-weight Blaklion who carries 11-12 but it's another one we can remove.
12/15 Had won over 3 miles or further. In a race of this nature it's unlikely to rule out many and in this case it doesn't rule out any.
11/15 Aged 9 or younger. General need a bit of youth on your side, partly because this 3 1/2 miles with a stiff uphill finish takes some getting, but also it can come at the end of a long, hard season. We can rule out Theatre Guide (11), Houblon Des Obeaux (11), Benbens (13), Rathlin Rose (10) and Band Of Blood (10).
10/15 Priced at 14/1 or shorter in the betting. We can come back to this one, simply because we can't really tell the final SP and also, I don't want to rule out one of those 5/15 who won at greater than 14/1 that hit all the other trends bar price! This is always worth bearing in mind with this kind of analysis.
9/15 Officially Rated 140 or higher and 9/15 Had raced in the last 25 days. Now, here is where things can get complicated. If we were to go with the Official Rating of 140 or higher then it would leave us with just 2 contenders, however both of them have raced 40+ days ago. If we were to go with raced within the last 25 days it would also leave us with 3 contenders but they are rated less than 140. What I do in this situation is I eliminate horses that don't meet either of these two trends and then I carry on and maybe come back to it. So we can eliminate Minella Daddy (OR 137 and 46 Days), Sugar Baron (137 and 44 Days) and Dawson City (133 and 35 Days).
8/15 In the Top-7 in the market and finished 4th or worse last time out. So there is another price-related trend again which again I'll leave for now and just eliminate those that finished in the Top-3 last time out. That rules out Missed Approach and Step Back who both won last time out.
So, our shortlist comprises of -:
ROYAL VACATION 40/1 BIGBADJOHN 11/1 THE YOUNG MASTER 10/1
The value hunter in me wants to go with Royal Vacation who has first time blinkers on, however, we have to be a bit strict here. The fact is that only 5/15 have been priced higher than 14/1 and only 7 have been outside the Top-7 in the market. The biggest priced winner from that bunch was actually last year's winner Henllan Harri at 40/1, all the others were 20/1 or 25/1 so the trends point to Royal Vacation being up against it so I'll rule him out. There have been 4 repeat winners and I'm a fan of horses for courses, especially at Sandown in these conditions so previous winner THE YOUNG MASTER has to be in with a shout. I also like the fact that BIGBADJOHN only misses out by 2lbs to being officially rated 140, so I'm sometimes prepared to consider that ‘close enough' to being the strongest contender.
I'm going to go with a split-stakes trends bet here -:
Sandown Saturday Bet365 Gold Cup Chase 3:35pm
BIGBADJOHN 2pts win @ 12/1 THE YOUNG MASTER 1pts win @ 11/1
A nice little 10/1 gamble landed for Taqdeer last weekend, am a big fan of using a trends elimination method in big handicaps. Friday's Esher Cup only has 8 runners but there is a clear trends selection in the Godolphin runner DREAM WARRIOR, after running through the GeeGeez trends.
DREAM WARRIOR 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Friday Sandown 1:50)
Not only that but Charlie Appleby and Buick are bang in form right now and also have a good record at the track. Over the last 30 days Charlie Appleby runners are 12/24 which is an amazing 50% Strike-Rate, showing a +15pts profit and 1.63 A/E which means his runners are winning 63% more often than their odds suggest. Buick has a 27% S/R alone with his rides in the last 2 weeks. If that wasn't enough Dream Warrior's sire Dubawi is profitable to +50pts on flat turf with a 21% Win Strike-rate with his runners.
Keep an eye out for the trends rundown for Saturday's Gold Cup at Sandown, marking the end of the jumps season.
Apart from the Scottish Grand National, I would usually be focused firmly on the flat season and the great card at Newbury, featuring the John Porter, Greenham Stakes and the Spring Cup which has been quite a good race for trends in previous years.
Running through the trends for the Spring Cup, there is one clear contender using the elimination method.
TAQDEER 1pt each-way @ 10/1
The Gosden/Dettori runner ran a fair 7th in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last time after a 2 year absence. The yard are in fine form, as is Dettori, and at 10/1 with a few bookies paying down to 5 places, it's a solid each-way bet.
The Scottish National also has a sole elimination trends qualifier with Irish contender -:
Ayr 4:05 Scottish Grand National
GLENCAIRN VIEW 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Betfair 5 places)
So, we know the Grand National is a bit of a lottery, requires a tremendous amount of luck in running and even the best horse can be brought down, hampered, unseat the rider, simply by being in the wrong place at the wrong time. So, you can look at form, profiling etc but at the end of the day, the trends can be as good a method as any – as they do tend to provide a quick and easy way to shortlist contenders from such a big field and we saw how well it has found the Irish National winner in the past, so does tend to work well in long-distance chases like these.
“Aged 10 years or younger”. Now, all of my 4 shortlisted contenders were over 10 years of age so I had to ignore this trend. The next trend was “Irish bred” – All the other 3 contenders were French-bred apart from one and it's 100/1!
DOUBLE ROSS 100/1 with Betway
paying down to 6 places is well worth an each-way bet.
The Twiston-Davies runner basically ran 4th last time at Cheltenham in the Kim Muir which was a promising run, and is another positive that a few contenders had run at the festival prior to this race. His saddled slipped and the rider lost his irons before pulling up in the 2016 Grand National. He has run ok in the Topham in the past and was 3rd in the 2016 Hennessy behind subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River so he does have a touch of class, is at the bottom of the weights and is as good an outside bet as any in this very open race.
Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)
26/27 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 – Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 – Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 – Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 – Aged 10 years-old or younger (X)
· 14/27 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
In this quick video preview, I show how to use GeeGeez Gold to narrow down a race to just a few contenders and to arrive at a couple of selections. This was done very quickly but shows the power of how to use the Instant Expert and other stats to filter down a race to just a few contenders. In this video I find one solid win selection and an e/w value bet.
I've looked at the Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase at Kelso at 3pm. Let's see how they do…