At the start of the year I built a number of systems for the flat season, largely based around breeding and using the excellent GeeGeez Gold Query Tool. I did the same thing for a number of all-weather and jumps systems, adding in a few specialist angles for sires and trainers who have shown a good record on soft and heavy going. Just like the stockmarket, you need to ensure your systems are balanced across a range of conditions, race codes, going etc so that if one or two outperform, the others should make up for that during a season – it's about diversification, discipline and money and systems management. Always review your systems at the end of each season to see if any sires are on the wane, or trainers are not performing as well etc etc.
Now, I won't post the exact filters I use, but the above should be enough to get you thinking and researching your own unique angles, that perhaps the crowd and other researchers are not tracking. Note also that all returns are at SP and from my experience, the BetfairSP provides an average improvement of anything between 10% and 40%, with the biggest discrepancies coming at the higher odds ranges, a lot of which are produced from these systems, so they actually perform much better at BetfairSP than the quoted profits below.
I thought I would post an update on how these all-weather and jumps systems have been performing so far in 2019. Overall, I have 18 systems I have been tracking and only two are sitting in negative territory as you can see from the list below. I put this down to the power of the GeeGeez Query Tool at being able to fine tune filters, while maintaining a decent cushion of ROI and backed up by strong A/E and IV figures. Not even counting the profits from the ratings, so far I am showing +855pts profit this season just across all-weather and jumps. The flat systems will be ready for next season so I don't want to be accused of back-fitting by posting the figures from halfway through the season this year, but I saw similar profitability, especially with sire-based systems.
The first thing to do is ensure you perform your analysis either on race type, ie. Not just All-Weather, but separate the Tapeta/Polytrack and Fibresand. For the jumps don't just split analysis by hurdles or chases, but also on soft/heavy going and at different race distances. ie. 2m hurdles or 3m chasers for example.
Next thing is to focus on sires, those sires whose progeny excel and are profitable under the race conditions, preferably with a positive Actual/Expect ratio (A/E) and Impact Value (IV).
Then look at combining sires and trainers and building sub-systems to improve strike-rate and/or to improve Return On Investment (ROI).
System 1 – AW 2yo and 3yo Sire Watch. Clue – Look to filter these for Class 1-3 races across all the all-weather tracks.
This is a combination of trainers and sires that have only produced 6 qualifiers this year but 2 of them have won at odds of 5/1 and 7/1 and are showing a +8pts profit and 133% ROI on the year. Since 2009 overall this system is selective with a 44% strike-rate, +63pts profit and an 89% ROI.
System 2 – Class Speed Hurdles. Clue – Keep distance of race less than 2m 2f.
This is another combination system over hurdles that combined class, race distance and profitable sire and trainer combination. This year it's showing a +35pts profit with a 70% ROI. Since 2014 it's showing a 31% strike-rate with a +177pts profit and 54% ROI.
System 3 – Fibresand Class Sire and Trainer. Clue – You should have no more than a total of 7 combined trainers and sires in this selective system.
This year it's showing a +18pts profit from 16 runners for a 118% ROI. Since 2015 it has a 27% strike-rate, +49pts profit and 90% ROI.
System 4 – Polytrack Sires. Clue – The clue is in the name!
This is really simple system looking at the very best sires on the Polytrack. I recently wrote a blog post to give some guidance on this here. With sire-systems you have to take a hit with strike-rate for a potentially greater ROI. This is what most systematic punters (and punters in general) are very poor at managing losing runs, they are not mentally strong enough to cope with the dips. This year it's showing a +77pts profit with 20% ROI and overall it has a 17% strike-rate, +560pts profit and a 40% ROI.
System 5 – Polytrack Trainer and Sire Combo 1. Clue – First look at sires, then trainers and try the reverse to build a complete list of sires and trainers. Plug them all in and pick the most profitable.
This system has been firing on all cylinders. As it's a combination system, strike-rate is a bit higher at an average 20%. This year it's produced a massive +230pts profit with a 64% ROI, which is above the overall average of 48% ROI and a total +878pts profit since 2014.
System 6 – Polytrack Trainer and Sire Combo 2. Clue – Similar to the above but with a Class filter
This is more selective than Combo 1 but there is some crossover. It's shown a +52pts profit with a 43% ROI and it has a higher 24% strike-rate, but the prices are generally lower although it has also found some big-priced winners. Since 2014 it's shown a +438pts profit with a 50% ROI.
System 7 – Soft/Heavy Trainer Sire Combo. Clue – Research the combinations on soft first, and then heavy and then soft-heavy and you will spot some interesting things. Then filter for sire and trainer and trainer and sire and see what else you notice. This system may need updating.
It produced a nice 12/1 winner with Flashjack at Haydock on Saturday but it's -39pts down with a -37% ROI. This is actually it's first losing year, although obviously there is a long way to go and this can produce some big-priced winners. Since 2009 it's showing a +731pts profit with a 77% ROI so I suspect that a few trainers on that list are not in such great form this year and that requires further research, but a losing year can happen from time to time and the season ‘aint over yet!
System 8 to 15 – Jumps Chase and Hurdle Trainer/Sire Combo by race distance. Clue – Don't just look at 2m for 2m chases, look at those < 2m 2f for example. Always give a few furlongs either side of the actual distance. Also consider using Class as a filter.
I love this set of systems as they are focusing, not just on profitable sire/trainer combinations but filtering further by race distance. This generally means the strike-rates will be higher but prices are still quite generous. Overall, this set of systems have produced a +193pts profit at SP with an average strike-rate of 25%, so you need to be expecting to be losing 3 in every 4 bets!
System 16 – Tapeta 2yo Sires. Clue – If you have more than 10 sires, revisit and refilter.
Since 2014 this little system has shown a +317pts profit and 51% ROI. This season has accounted for +103pts and in itself has delivered an outstanding 52% ROI. It got another beauty with Wailea Nights at 16/1 at Wolverhampton on Friday who paid a generous 19.04 BSP.
System 17 – Tapeta All Sires. Clue – Same as system 4 but on Tapeta…again the clue is in the name!
So far this has shown an amazing +126pts profit in 2019 with a 21% Yield and likely better to come as the average yield since 2014 is 30% and a total +835pts profit!
System 18 – Tapeta Trainer/Sire. Clue – Filter these by distance to find the optimum distance range, because there is one!
A +53pts profit with a 46% ROI this season so far, despite a 16% strike-rate which is lower than the average 22% since 2014 and has shown +598pts profit since then for a 105% ROI, so it has scope for further profits.
System 19 – Polytrack 2yo Sires – Same as System 16 but for Kempton, Lingfield and Chelmsford and has amassed a massive +857pts profit and 113% ROI since 2014 and +182pts profit and 111% ROI in 2019.
I love my ratings, the filtered race Top-Rated have a 30% strike-rate, with a +168pts profit and 23% ROI. A near 60% of winners are found from the Top-3 of the ratings, with jumps handicap chases being one of the most profitable race types with a +57pts profit and 74% ROI at BetfairSP, less 5% maximum commision. The beauty is that the ratings are easy to back the Top-Rated at BetfairSP and I would advise to do the same with your GeeGeez Query Tool system selections to boost profits even further. You can pick up a 30-day trial for just £1 below and combining a ratings and systems approach will improve your betting and take the ‘opinion' and decision out of the equation, it's a shortcut to success.