Not all all-weather surfaces are the same, there is no such thing as an ‘all-weather' surface and it's worth looking at the surface at each racecourse. The number of all-weather meetings will start to increase this month and through the winter so it's an ideal time to start researching some trainer/sire combination systems.
Tapeta was introduced as a racing surface in the UK at Wolverhampton on the 11th August 2014 and Newcastle has been Tapeta since May 2016. We can build a useful Tapeta Sire/Trainer combo system using GeeGeez Gold Query Tool to flag useful future qualifiers easily, just follow the instructions below.
STEP 1 – Select 11/8/2014 as the FROM data in the Date Range, Wolverhampton and Newcastle as the COURSE and FLAT AW as the Race Code.
STEP 2 – SELECT 7F to 1m 2F as the DISTANCE range as we want to focus on those race distances where we can rule out a bad start and reduce the chances of not recovering after trouble in running, especially in sprint races.
STEP 3 – SELECT SIRE and hit GENERATE REPORT
STEP 4 – The above gives you a list of profitable Tapeta sires, after you have set the filters along the top, 10 Min Runs, 5 Min Wins, 10% Min Win%, Min Win PL of 10 and an A/E and I.V of 1. Add these sires by clicking on the + button next to the name of each sire.
STEP 5 – Click on TRAINER and hit GENERATE REPORT and you will get a list of profitable trainers that have a good record with this progeny, who are already proven and profitable on the surface. Click on the + button again to generate the angle and then save it.
STEP 6 – CLICK on QUALIFIERS to view a list of upcoming qualifiers. You can see how many winners this has generated, at decent odds, including a 33/1 shot Constitutional at Newcastle last month and a 50/1 winner a few days beforehand. Combined they have a 35% strike-rate and 109% ROI.
STEP 7 – If you view the racecard you can see the qualifiers for the 6:55 at Newcastle tonight. There is a hot odds-on John Gosden/Kingman runner Tsar but that sire has a far better record on turf so far, despite the excellent 51% record of John Gosden with these sires, he doesn't qualify due to the absence of Kingman as a non-profitable all-weather sire. The 100/1 shot Roddy Ransom may be a stab in the dark for small change at likely massive BetfairSP, but the profitable all-weather sire Lope De Vega is responsible for the Karl Burke runner EMERATY HERO who is interesting at a best-price 8/1.
I'd recommend an each-way on that one as these proverbial good things can get turned over and this one also has a positive trainer/jockey combination for additional strength. When combined Karl Burke and Danny Tudhope have a 36% win record with a PL of +15.5 and an A/E of 2.56.
Win or lose tonight, you can see the benefit of being able to build these angle and research qualifiers on the fly and have them flagged in the Query Tool or on the Racecards themselves.
If you follow me on Twitter as @formbet, then you will know I have been posting researched System Qualifiers using GeeGeez Gold's excellent Query Tool. GeeGeez is amazing value and is capable of turning you from a losing/break-even punter into a very profitable one, but you do have to do a little bit of prep work.
I have been posting #SireWatchand #Sprintwatchqualifiers on Twitter for the last week or so but will be stopping after this weekend. The reason is that I have shown you how to use the filters and the rest is up to you and to join GeeGeez, or at least try it for the initial £1 a month to see the difference it can make to your betting.
You can find details of how to research and build these two systems on the following 2 blog posts -:
I thought I would sign them off by a brief mention of some of the qualifiers racing this Saturday, the 20th September, which are at the bottom of this post.
They are really easy to spot on the GeeGeez Gold racecards once you have built your Query Tool angles, future qualifiers are highlighted on the cards like below and on the Query Tool “View Runners” tab itself as below.
So, you can go through each race after identifying them in the Query Tool and dig into a bit more detail on the breeding.
Now, the P&L figures on the racecards are for ALL the trainers and ALL the qualifying sires for that angle. On the sire snippets on the racecard, we can also see the additional, overall stats for War Front, useful when comparing against other sires progeny in the race. If you actually want to see how a particular trainer has done with all sires, or vice versa, or just one trainer/sire combo, then do the following. Let's say we want to see how Gosden has done with War Front. All we have to do is uncheck all the trainers except Gosden, extend the date to since 2009, select Sires and re-generate the angle to look at his stats with War Front. You can of course just keep one list of sires and then keep the trainer blank and enter his name only, for research purposes, whatever is easiest for you.
So we now can get a list of which of these sires Gosden performs best with by strike-rate/yield etc and in particular War Front, who is actually his 2nd highest strike-rate sire, under these conditions with juveniles, of course we have to be a bit wary of sample size. Below that, you can see the list of filters applied. This makes CHEROKEE TRAIL look a good bet tomorrow in the 1:10 at Newbury, purely based on the sire, stats, race conditions and other strong trainer/jockey data to back it up, BUT it's likely to be short-priced.
Newbury 1:45 MAID IN INDIA 20/1 5yo (Alston/Bated Breath)
Ayr 2:40 JAWWAAL 25/1 4yo (Dods/Bahamian Bounty)
Ayr 3:50 BUFFER ZONE 11/2 4yo (Lyons/Bated Breath)
Ayr 3:50 AIR RAID 25/1 4yo (O'Keefe/Raven's Pass)
Ayr 3:50 LOUIE DE PALMA 25/1 7yo (Cox/Pastoral Pursuits)
Now, of course these are just a couple of angles to play and personally, I prefer it to find confirmation with my ratings to feel really confident as I always prioritise my ratings, especially with the older sprintwatch qualifiers. With the sirewatch qualifiers you can get a huge edge on the crowd, get an idea of formlines, get used to noticing specific trainers and sires in other situations automatically, and just become a smarter and more profitable punter. I highly recommend taking out a subscription to GeeGeez Gold.
Following on from my blog post about Classy 2yo's and how to identify them, often before they run, I thought it would be worth looking at some of those that have either won or shown promise from this set of filters. You don't need to look at times, stride lengths and all that nonsense which has little predictive value and is far too time consuming – look at what happened to Visinari, who was spoken as the next 2nd-coming in some quarters.
Instead, you can keep it relatively simple, all you need to look at is breeding and trainer ability, that's it. If you also have a set of ratings like FTS then you are giving yourself an edge over 99.9% of punters who don't use any of these tools as they are excellent when used on combination with sire and trainer analysis.
This may seem like an obvious pick, especially in light of Sunday's bloodbath in the National Stakes, but I've been backing him since he first appeared on the racecourse and he has been top-rated and advised to subscribers on a few of his earlier wins already. I knew the ability of Shamardal and Charlie Appleby when it came to highlighting top class juveniles and a potential future Group 1 or classic winner. This approach has yielded winners at big odds on their 2yo debuts when there is little else to go on. Pinatubo can go all the way to the top and really looks something special, I'm glad I've managed to get 7/2 and 4/1 about this contender on a few of his earlier runs, as you are unlikely to see those kinds of odds again.
MISS YODA (Sea The Stars/Gosden)
An impressive winner of a maiden on Friday at Sandown, Miss Yoda looks capable of winning Group races at 3 at distances of 1 mile and further. There is plenty of stamina on the dams side to suggest she can take the step up in trip in her stride, and we already know the versatility of the sire at distances of 1m – 12 furlongs.
KAMEKO (Kitten's Joy/Balding)
A tall and scopey colt but still ran well enough to win on his debut at Sandown and the 2nd has boosted that form since by winning. Then ran a race full of promise at big odds when just failing by a nose to get the better of Positive in the Group 3 Solario Stakes last time. He ran green there so it was a good effort to get so close and he could improve markedly from 2 to 3 once he matures and fills out his frame.
RAAEB (Raven's Pass/Suroor)
Impressive performance at Doncaster last week, quickening well and staying on strongly and this colt is bred to be a Group winner, especially so on the dam side and again is capable of winning at distances up to 10f/12f.
Ran into a decent Godolphin runner Path Of Thunder on debut, who has subsequently boosted that form. Made no mistake at Newbury when last seen in July, winning by an easy 2 1/4 lengths from Native Tribe who scored well last time. Form looks solid and could be very effective at a mile and perhaps up to 10f. The dam is a half-sister to 3 x Group 1 winner Ervedya.
Beat the subsequent May Hill 3rd Alpen Rose on her 2nd run and already looks like she needs further than 7f. By Kingman out of a Sea The Stars mare who is a half-sister to an Irish 1000 Guineas winner, it could be 8f is her optimum. Holds an entry at Newbury on Friday.
PALACE PIER (Kingman/Gosden)
A taking colt who won easily on debut at Sandown in August, beating a decent looking field by nearly 4 lengths. Dam didn't race but is a half-sister to a couple of 1m/10f Group 2 winners. Holds an entry at Sandown on Wednesday.
RIDENZA (Sea The Stars/Halford)
Easily won a big field fillies maiden at Leopardstown, beating a few well-touted newcomers. By Sea The Stars out of a Rock Of Gibraltar mare, is bred to be a decent miler, but there is also plenty of stamina on the dams side and she could develop into an Oaks contender.
VOLKAN STAR (Sea The Stars/Appleby)
Stepped up on debut when making all and winning easily by 6 lengths. Quite what he beat there, I'm not so sure, but there was no denying the style of victory and there is enough stamina in this pedigree to suggest he could be up to winning at anything from a mile to 12 furlongs.
CAYENNE PEPPER (Australia/Harrington)
Won well on her debut over 7f, with the subsequent Moyglare winner LOVE around 6 lengths back in 4th. Won well again at Tipperary before comfortably winning the GP3 Flame Of Tara stakes over a mile.
That's it for now – I'll look at producing a similar list towards the end of the season but for now, you can track any future qualifiers on Twitter using hashtag #SireWatch
Today, I'm turning my attention to finding classy sprinters on turf, it's a perfect time to do so, with many big Sales races and top-class sprint handicaps on the horizon. In order to do so, some research is required and the steps are listed below.
STEP 1 – Fire up the Query Tool in GeeGeez Gold and select “FLAT TURF” as the Race Code and the Date Range for 1st Jan 2017 – 31st Dec 2017.
STEP 2 – Select Race Distances between 5f and 6f and the Age Min set to 2 and Age Max set to 3. You could potentially extend this to 4 years of age which gives additional sires Approve, Compton Place, Red Jazz, Arcano, Choisir, Fastnet Rock, Intikhab, Dream Ahead, Lethal Force, Major Cadeaux & Raven's Pass.
STEP 3 – Click the checkbox next to SIRE and then Click on GENERATE REPORT to see the list of all qualifying sires.
STEP 4 – Filter these SIRES by Minimum of 10 Runs, Min 10% Win% and Min Win PL of +10. These provide a shortlist of profitable 2yo 5f/6f sires list from 2017. Repeat this step for 2018 and 2019 as below.
STEP 5 – Change the dates to 2018 and click Generate Report. This provides a shortlist of profitable 2yo sprint sires list from 2018, listed below.
STEP 6 – Change the dates to 2019 and click Generate Report. This provides a shortlist of profitable 2yo sprint sires list from 2019, listed below. Take a note of all the 2017/18/19 profitable sires on Notepad or somewhere.
STEP 7 – Reset the Query Tool and then run a Query for Profitable Class 1 AND Class 2 Flat Trainers over 5f and 6f from 1/1/2017 to the present date. Then put in place the following filters listed below. Minimum 10 Runs, Min 10% Win% and Min Impact Value (IV) of 1.25. This gives the list of filtered trainers listed below.
STEP 8 – Add this list of trainers to filters for this Angle by clicking on the little + button next to their name. You can also add in manually, some other selective trainers you deem to be ‘Class' trainers but these are the guys who have the decent strike-rates and who outperform with their sprinters in Class contests. Not all will be profitable, but we are looking to combine these trainers with the previous list of profitable sprinter sires.
STEP 9 – Under the SIRE tab, add in the list of SIRE's you gathered from STEPS 4-6.
STEP10 – SET CLASS to 1-3 only and then Generate Report. Click on ADD ANGLE, give it a unique name and click VIEW RUNNERS to see upcoming qualifiers that match the 5f – 6f profitable sire list combined with class trainers. The below are a list of qualifiers for the week ahead.
You can also click on QUALIFIERS and view a list of previous qualifiers and how they have performed as displayed below. I'd suggest perhaps a minimum odds filter of around 4/1 or so. If you had backed the list of sires and trainers in 5f and 6f Class 1-3 contests since 2017, then you would have seen a profit of +105.5pts and a 13% ROI. As you can see below, this would have identified some decent winners at York in August including Mums Tipple, Threat and 20/1 winner Owney Madden. Ideally, this is best used in combination with the FTS ratings. You can pick up a subscription to our ratings and Best Bets service via WhatsApp here.
You can also view the graphical format by selecting sire, trainer or whatever and seeing at a glance, the most profitable sires – in this case HANNON, DASCOMBE, BOTTI and COLE are 4 notable trainers while the sires APPROVE, BATED BREATH and DUBAWI standout.
Hopefully, you can see above the power ofGeeGeez GoldQuery Tool to create your own systems to track and be able to get an edge on 99.9% of punters who don't use this software, which is a value £1 per month just to try it out. Something else I do is have a list of profitable sires on good to firm or firm and those on soft or heavy – this gives me additional evidence to ensure that the progeny have their optimum conditions and give extra strength behind a selection.
The next few blog posts will feature a review of the 2yo's to keep an eye on for the next few months of the flat season, then there will be a review of sprinters to follow also. Sprint races have a lot more variance than the mile types, as so much depends on a good break from the stalls, where the pace is, the draw and luck and running. I'll bear that in mind when looking for sprinters to follow.
I suggest you take out a subscription to GeeGeez Gold so you can find these qualifiers each day, they are also flagged on the GeeGeez Gold racecard. These systems work best when used in conjuction with the FTS ratings and you can join here and get the ratings and Best Bets via WhatsApp. I'll post qualifiers from these filters for a while on Twitter under the Hashtag #Sprintwatch
Something I like to do at this time of year, in early September, is to take a look at some notable 2yo's from a breeding and trainer perspective. I firmly believe that the best way to look at potentially Group 1 class 3yo's is to look at the breeding record of the 2yo progeny, combined with a shortlist of quality, Group 1 proven trainers and merge the two. That's what I've done in this brief list of notable 2yo's that have appeared so far and will post Daily Qualifiers on Twitter.
These qualifiers can easily be researched and other 2yo systems built, with daily qualifiers highlighted, using the excellent GeeGeez Gold Query Tool. It only costs £1 for your first month and you will find the Query Tool facility alone, invaluable, along with their excellent racecards and Pace maps.
I thought I would show how easy it is to find strong, well-bred runners with a class trainer – which for me is the best way to track potentially top-class 2yo runners that could go on to make their mark as a 3yo in Group races.
STEP 1 – Fire Up the Query Tool in GeeGeez Gold and select “FLAT TURF” as the Race Code and the Date Range for 1st Jan 2017 – 31st Dec 2017
STEP 2 – Select Race Distances between 7 furlongs to 1 mile and the Age Min Max set to 2, so we just focus on juvenile runners.
STEP 3 – Click the checkbox next to SIRE and then Click on GENERATE REPORT to see the list of all qualifying sires.
STEP 4 – Filter these SIRES by Minimum of 10 Runs, Min 10% Win% and Min Win PL of +10. These provides a shortlist of profitable 2yo 7f/1m sires list from 2017. Repeat this step for the years 2018 and 2019 as below.
STEP 5 – Change the dates to 2018 and click Generate Report. This provides a shortlist of profitable 2yo 7f/1m sires list from 2018, listed below.
STEP 6 – Change the dates to 2019 and click Generate Report. This provides a shortlist of profitable 2yo 7f/1m sires list from 2019, listed below. Take a note of all the 2017/18/19 profitable sires on Notepad or somewhere.
STEP 7 – Reset the Query Tool and then run a Query for Profitable Class 1 Flat Trainers from 1/1/2017 to the present date. Then put in place the following filters listed below. Minimum 10 Runs, Min 10% Win% and Min Impact Value (IV) of 1.25. This gives the list of filtered trainers listed below.
STEP 8 – Add this list of trainers to filters for this Angle by clicking on the little + button next to their name. You can also add in manually, some other selective trainers you deem to be ‘Class' trainers but these are the profitable guys who outperform.
STEP 9 – Under the SIRE tab, add in the list of SIRE's you gathered from STEPS 4-6.
STEP 10 – Set AGE Min and Max to 2.
STEP11 – SET CLASS to 1-4 only and then Generate Report. Click on ADD ANGLE, give it a unique name and click VIEW RUNNERS to see upcoming qualifiers that match the 7f – 1m profitable sire list combined with class trainers. The below are a list of qualifiers for today (13th September 2019)
You can also click on QUALIFIERS and view a list of previous qualifiers and how they have performed as displayed below.
You can also view the graphical format by selecting sire, trainer or whatever and seeing at a glance, the most profitable sires – in this case Kingman is head and shoulders above the rest in terms of ROI.
Finally, all qualifiers are displayed in the little Query Tool box below, which expanded gives a list of the returns from backing this combination of sire/trainers under today's conditions.
Hopefully, you can see above the power of GeeGeez Gold Query Tool to create your own systems to track and be able to get an edge on 99.9% of punters who don't use this software, which is a value £1 per month just to try it out.
In the next blog article I'm going to post a review of 2yo's from the list of qualifiers to keep an eye on through the rest of the season. Some people use the clock or other time-based methods but my experience has taught me that is unreliable as a guide and to trust in the solid breeding stats and skills of a class trainer able to get the best out of their juveniles and 3yo's. This filter can be adapted to search for 3yo's at 1m – 1m 4f in the early stages of the season, to spot potential classic winners, if they had not already been highlighted as a 2yo. It's also important to update the sire list at the end of each season and add any new ones to the list, as well as any up and coming trainers that have broken their Group 1-winning duck.
I suggest you take out a subscription to GeeGeez Gold so you can find these qualifiers each day. I'll post qualifiers from these filter for a while on Twitter under the Hashtag #SireWatch
I've performed detailed analysis of the FTS Ratings that were introduced in late June 2019 and you can download here a full spreadsheet of the results, stats, winners and example ratings & WhatsApp message that gets sent to subscribers with the day's ratings link and Best Bets betting advice. I had always had in mind that these ‘new' ratings, although based on 10+ years FBR and POW ratings, would take some time to ‘bed in' but their performance has so far exceeded my expectations.
Details of what is on the spreadsheet is below and the breakdown of the top-rated performance is below, as you can see a nice 5.3% Yield at SP which can be bettered by taking BSP and still further by taking best Early Prices (EP) when ratings are sent. In fact taking early prices gives +73.3pts profit and a 22% Yield – not many ratings services can provide such profits, simply by backing their top-rated contender at the best early prices. It's especially good that profits still exist at SP, so I'm really happy with this achievement.
AH – All-Weather Handicaps
JHC = Jumps Handicap Chases
JHH = Jumps Handicap Hurdles
FH = Flat Handicaps
FN = Flat Non-Handicaps
STATS TAB – This contains a summary of the overall performance and profitability of the top-rated on the ratings, and also broken down by race type and month. All P&L is calculated at Industry Starting Price (SP). As you can see there is a massive difference between the early price profits (give or take the odd non-runner) of +73.3pts profit compared to +17.7pts profit at SP. There is also an increase of up to 17% Yield by taking best early prices, which highlights the importance of taking an early price on top-rated runners, they get backed!
TopRated TAB – A list of all the top-rated runners that have been rated along with their early odds and price movement from those odds to SP. I also intend to add an age column, perhaps avoiding 2yo races for instance and more filtered results for class of race etc. Time may tell it's best to avoid the betting shorter-priced runners over time, if they provide less of a percentage edge, or at least only focusing on certain race types. ie. Group 1's or when combined with the position of the horse in the betting forecast. No. Of Runners will also be added when time permits, to assess ratings performance by field size groupings.
Winners TAB – A list of all the winners of the rated races.
BetfairSP Snapshot TAB – BetfairSP will also give a significant improvement if early prices or BOG are not possible. As you can see from the BetfairSP Snapsot. The % increase in price increases as the odds range increases, meaning you could take BSP and get a profitable increase of an estimated 15-18% compared to SP. I have not recorded all BSP's, as they are no longer available to download from Betfair due to technical issues, so I have to input them manually and it will take a while.
June/July – I was really happy with the ratings performance at the end of June when they were just really going live after testing for a month or two, and again they performed really well all through July. There were also a couple of notable 2nd-rated winners, a few of which were advised to subscribers including Great White Shark at 33/1 at the Galway festival. The POW ratings came into effect in July and helped to find Stewards Cup winner Khaadeem, advised at 10/1, this is now incorporated and weighted into the main FTS Rating.
August – The first two weeks of August started great, with a record +£39 profit achieved on the 17th August, THEN, York Ebor meeting happened and was the cause of most of the pain for the month. However, it's worth pointing out that we did have 7 x Top-Rated, shorter priced winners at the festival and a) this meeting is ultra-competitive and b) how many top-rated 2nd's we had, no fewer than 9 x 2nd place finishers at the York Ebor meeting including Agincourt (14/1) beaten a head on the Thursday and Celtic Art (14/1) beaten a neck on Friday. Either one of those would have put us in profit for the month and is simply betting variance. The V%'s were also incorporated in mid-August to assist with value-based ratings analysis and selections.
Most people will quit a service around this time after a poor run at a big festival, but it always makes sense to dig deeper and see the overall performance of the ratings and not get too swayed by short-termism, the punters biggest downfall. There are several big festivals left on the flat through September – October and I expect profits and consistency to increase.
September – Started well with Francis Xavier returning a nice 17 BSP and Hello Youmzain 8/1 in the Haydock Sprint Cup and 2nd-rated Time To Study advised at 12/1 in the Old Borough Cup.
I will be looking at further race filtering to improve the advised Best Bet performance (have not had time to get those results up to date yet) but my focus is on the ratings performance improvement, statistical analysis of the results and seeing, in what kind of conditions, we can give ourselves the best chance of success when backing a top-rated contender and which races/runners to swerve. As the average odds about top-rated contenders is higher than the market-ranked runners, then I will be happy to achieve a regular 25%-28% strike-rate over the month, anything lower than that could results in a small loss.
The “Class” results on the Stats page make it clear to avoid rating Class 6 (and maybe even Class 5) contests, simply due to overall poor quality at those levels and also to perhaps swerve the Group 1 races, most likely flat Group 1 contests where the odds are much more restrictive and harder to make an overall profit, despite having a near 10% improvement in strike-rate compared to all other class of race. The key here may be to only back a top-rated Class 1 contender that has a positive V% perhaps or go for the forecast 1-2 on the ratings as we have landed quite a few for decent returns. As we can see from the table below, summarising the above, by class of race.
I have made a change today to the FTS rating to exclude one of the overall model criteria in certain race contests, and this should ensure profits are more easily achieved on top-rated runners going forward. I will largely focus on Top-Rated runners but will throw in the odd selection from 2nd or 3rd on the ratings, if the top-rated is too short and I feel there is value to be had. The Top-3 on the ratings provide almost 50% of the winners after all so it's a good area to focus on. So long as I am seeing a slight increase in the Win% of the Top1, 2, 3 by the end of the flat season, then I will be happy – that is the main goal and more regular winners will inevitably follow.
Beware Handicap Hurdles
The performance of jumps races will be a little volatile as the season starts to wind up properly in October, just until there is enough data as there is on the flat (1-2 months) before you see more stability and profitability. It's early days with small samples just now and need to wait till they get over the 50 and preferably 100 rated races mark. Handicap Hurdles I will not be advising bets in as I have always believed they required a slightly unique model which I plan to have ready for the start of October once more races have been rated and I feel more confident in the figures and see strike-rate improvement into the 20%+ bracket like the others.
I will be looking for these ratings, stats and results to be automatically updated on the main FormBet website at some point in the near future, including a site re-design, so subscribers can keep an eye on progress and track results in real-time.
Any questions please get in touch via the Contact page or join now for just £1 a month and get the ratings and best bets via WhatsApp for all rated races. I generally focus on Class 4 races or above so on really poor days racing, often early in the week, there might not be any ratings. However, those ‘missed' days are made up for by the number of bets on the weekend and at the big meetings.