First day of the flat season, which is my preferred code to make profits in. I always loved to try to get my head around the Spring Mile and Lincoln Handicaps on Day 1 and today is no different. Using GeeGeez Gold I have been able to analyse the draw and pace charts in an instant and it's really interesting to note that on ground that is good to soft or softer that those that are held-up from a high draw have 3 wins and twice as many places as any other combination in these big-field mile races.
2:25 Spring Mile 1pt e/w 25/1EXECUTIVE FORCE is ridden by Jamie Spencer so chances are he will be held up and delivered late from his high draw, also worth noting he has the highest speed figure on the GeeGeez cards. Over the last 5 years Spencer has a 20% Win S/R and 44% place S/R, showing a +34pts profit. At 25/1 I'm prepared to take an each way punt. Original Choice looks the danger and could be worth a small win cover.
3:35 Lincoln 1pt e/w 16/1DONNCHA was beaten a neck of this mark in the Spring Mile 2 years ago on soft going and last year was 3rd in this race, beaten two necks off a 3lb higher mark on good to soft going. He has also lucked out in that he is a hold-up runner drawn high and with Andrea Atzeni doing the steering, he has a solid each-way shout. He has an even better record than Spencer at the course over the last 5 years. Fire Brigade looks the main danger under Ryan Moore and again may be worth a cover bet.
You can also view a free Trainer/Jockey Combo report every Saturday via GeeGeez
Using an elimination trends method there is one horse that stands out in terms of value for the Midlands National on Saturday. This method involves starting with strong trends and working your way down until you have eliminated all the runners that don't meet the strongest trends. The ones I looked at for this race are as follows -:
14/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
12/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Won by an Irish bred horse
11/14 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/14 – Carried 10-9 or less
10/14 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
10/14 – Officially rated 133 or less
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
That gives us a strong trends selection in 40/1 shot THEMANFROM MINELLA which is worth an each-way wager. He looks a hit or miss horse with 2 wins and a 2nd but 3 PU's from his last 6 outings, however at the prices and with him having guaranteed winning form on heavy going, I'm prepared to take a chance at the prices.
The GeeGeez Pace angles for this race suggest that Mid-Division is where you want to be and looking at the recent trainer stats and jockey stats, I must admit to liking the chances of 25/1 shot PLUS JAMALS. The trainer has a 23% Win Strike-Rate over the last month with 45% of his runners hitting the frame. The 3lb claimer Ross Chapman has a 33% strike-rate and 48% place record with his rides. Throw in the 33% Win S/R of the sire Caballo Raptor with a 67% place record and we have ourselves a solid trainer/jockey/sire stat contender at a price.
All these stats and filters can be found on GeeGeez Gold.
Time and other work have really conspired against me this week. Cheltenham analysis is a full-time job and you need a lot of luck and time to do it justice. Thankfully, the flat season is just a few weeks away and is much more reliable and profitable for me over the years, can't wait to use the power of GeeGeez Goldto unlock some value bets in the big races for the 2018 flat season. However, there is still one day left of the festival, so let's see what we can find in < 10 mins!
Due to time constraints, an even quicker review than Tuesday with just 30 minutes spent looking through all the races via GeeGeez Gold.
1:30 Ballymore Novice Hurdle – BLACK OP 2pt win 9/2 (w/o Samcro)
Tom George and Noel Fehily won the Supreme on Tuesday and they have another interesting runner in the opener on Wednesday. Samcro looks very strong but in the market without him I think the 9/2 Black Op is fair enough with no problems on going, distance or field size front.
On the GeeGeez Instant Expert Black Corton is green across the board with 2 course wins, form on soft, proven at the distance and in this class. For me, this looks a decent bet today. Very consistent with 16 times in the frame from 18 runs.
2:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle – SPRINGTOWN LAKE 1pt e/w @ 25/1 & LE BREUIL 1pt e/w @ 16/1
Both of these are likely to be prominent/leaders who have a positive IV here. Le Breuil also has positive sire stats overall. It's a bit of a lottery of a race but hopefully at least one of these will go close.
A few years ago I quietly fancied Ar Mad for Cheltenham before he had to miss the festival. Have not been following jumps racing and not sure what problems he has had but I do remember he was a flamboyant front-runner and has at least had a couple of fair runs this season. That style of racing could go one of two ways in this field but there are enough doubts over the front-2 in the market to take a cheeky stab at a huge price in the first time cheekpieces. Min could be the one to take advantage if the front-2 in the market fail to fire.
I remember Cantlow being favourite for this last year when placing and so this price is certainly eye-catching given his fairly consistent form in these race and the fact he acts on soft/heavy conditions.
This is purely a bet based on sire stats and the trainers record at the festival. Nick Williams had a nice winner on Tuesday and he has a 7lb relative up on board this son of Soldier of Fortune, who has an amazing 22% S/R from big sample sizes both in hurdles, especially so in juvenile speed races.
I'll admit it, I have not looked at jumps racing at all this season, sometimes it is good to come in blind. All I have done is look at GeeGeez Gold, through a number of reports and stats to produce shortlists and look for value. Here are my thoughts, all stats and data courtesy of GeeGeez Gold.
First Flow has won his last 2 races by an aggregate of 30 lengths!
Some things never change, a short-priced, strong-looking Willie Mullins contender with plenty of speed & stamina and ability to act in the heavy conditions that are looking likely for the opening day. GETABIRD looks a strong contender but I've seen plenty of them lose over the years so I'm going to go with a bit of value with FIRST FLOW each-way at 11/1. Now I do have a problem with the trainer/jockey record at the track over the last few years but this runner did step up markedly on his previous 2 wins when scoring impressively by 10 lengths last time out and both his wins have come in very heavy going, he also has a win in a 16-runner field so that is also a plus in his favour.
2:10 ARKLE TROPHY – SAINT CALVADOS 2pt WIN @ 3/1
Elan Definition : Enthusiastic vigor and liveliness!
Another Mullins Hotpot in FOOTPAD but there are a lot of positives about SAINT CALVADOS who has won all 3 of his chase starts, seemingly jumping very impressively along the way. I must admit the trainer is a new name to me, but he obviously would have learned from the best, having operated a satellite yard for Nicky Henderson for many years. I have never seen the in-running comment “jumped with elan” before so I'll take that as a positive sign that this chaser could be a bit special.
Horses For Courses – Another invaluable GeeGeez Gold Report!
4 horses here have a good record at the course – COGRY, VICENTE, SHANTOU FLYER and SINGLEFARMPAYMENT. I must admit I like the look of both COGRY and SHANTOU FLYER who are both priced at a generous looking 20/1 based on their course form and likely suitability to conditions. Cogry is especially interesting, having beaten Singlefarmpayment in October and with a 40% record on heavy going should relish the conditions. Twiston-Davies is in form and Jamie Bargary takes off a handy 3lb – the pair teamed up to land the Imperial Cup at the weekend. Shantou Flyer has no wins on heavy but he has run a couple of massive 2nd's in Grade 3 handicap chases at the course this year on heavy conditions and the first-time tongue tie and step up to 3 miles at the course could see him go very close. Let's hope I've picked the right two specialists!
3:30 CHAMPION HURDLE – MY TENT OR YOURS 1pt E/W @ 25/1
Check out that 85% place percentage over hurdles!
OK, so this is one favourite I don't feel comfortable opposing in BUVEUR D'AIR who should take all the beating but last year's 2nd looks a bit overpriced with question marks over a lot of the others in terms of class and going. MY TENT OR YOURS Cheltenham form reads 222221 and if we are looking for one to hit the frame or capitalise should anything else happen, it looks the most solid e/w contender at the prices, given that only Buveur D'Air prevented him from winning both the Champion and Aintree hurdle last season. How many other horses do you know that are 6/6 with hitting the frame at Cheltenham, often at the highest level? Faugheen is interesting in first-time cheekpieces also, especially given his previous festival form and raw ability, last 2 runs have looks dubious though.
4:10 MARES HURDLE – LA BAGUE AU ROI 1pt E/W @ 7/1
Check out those sire stats for Doctor Dino! Strong!
Yes, I'm taking on another heavy odds-on shot with an each-way poke. You don't get anywhere backing odds-on shots in heavy going over time, especially when it's really competitive over the toughest track on the planet. So, I've gone for the Greatrex/Johnson runner LA BAGUE AU ROI each-way at 13/2 who should be in the frame and again could capitalise if the favourite has an off-day. What I particularly like are the very strong sire stats, overall, over hurdles and over this kind of trip and age range. OK, this runner is responsible for 7 of those wins, but still…Warren Greatrex is also bang in form and has a particularly good record when teaming up with Richard Johnson, thanks to the Trainer/Jockey Combo report.
4:50 NH Challenge Cup – PYLONTHEPRESSURE 1pt E/W @ 18/1
Cannot argue with those trainer stats, recent & course form!
OK, so the words Amateur and Novice should really set off all the warning bells in your head that you might expect. Still, it's a Cheltenham race so we are really looking for a decent jockey and an in-form runner. I'm going for a small e/w bet on the Mullins/Katie Walsh runner PYLONTHEPRESSURE. She is one of the best jockeys in the field, bar the likes of Mr Codd on the favourite but again 11/2 doesn't interest me as much as 16/1 each-way for one of the least exposed runners in the field from a good stable. Not a race to go nuts in!
5:30 CLOSE BROTHERS NOVICE HC CHASE – LE ROCHER 1pt E/W @ 25/1
Solid Greens across the board for Le Rocher!
I LOVE the Instant Expert feature of GeeGeez Gold. I had little interest or shortlist contenders in this race so I basically just removed all horses that had no wins on heavy going and then looked at the data. For me LE ROCHER looks excellent value here with 5/7 wins on heavy, including a win here at Cheltenham, no problems with this class of race either. Has 3/5 places at this distance so the 1 win from 6 does not bother me, the other stats are solid and the price is right for an each-way play. Nick Williams also has a great record at the track over the last 5 years.