MLB Preview Tue 30th April

MLB Preview Tue 30th April

A strange night last night with the top-2 pitchers on the slate underperforming, and being on the losing side, however, it's the exception to the rule usually and over 160+ games in the season, you will get nights like that. Verlander was still the 3rd-highest Fantasy points scorer but it's notable that his opponent Jake Odorizzi was the highest. At least we got the Atlanta forecast right, with Mike Soroka the 2nd-highest points scoring pitcher. It's important to be consistent in any betting approach, especially when using statistics and ratings. Losing punters chop and change and give up after a few days poor performance. However, tonight we have another issue with weather concerns in some of the later games (HOU/MIN, TEX/PIT, TB/KC and CWS/BAL) all have concerns, meaning those team names in RED may have postponements or weather delays, especially so with TB/KC. It's best to avoid them I feel but weather is a really important factor in Baseball and selecting players for DFS especially. It's worth following Kevin Roth on Twitter for updates and even subscribing to a premium weather app like Radarscope Pro. The average punter/DFS player will not be looking in this much detail so sometimes it's good to “geek out” on apps like this to gain an edge. For example, some of the games mentioned above, the weather may clear and provide some top Fantasy options that earlier players have missed. It's also worth just filling up your lineups on DFS then swopping a ‘non-starter' for a player in a ‘weather-impacted' game that turns out to be ok, depends how much of your life you want to spend watching weather updates and messing about with player swops. Personally, I value my free time 🙂 I'll be doing a specific post on DFS in the coming weeks but until then I'll stick with the outright bets on the ‘surefire' weather games, with a few mentions on Fantasy Players to note from those teams.



Going to keep it brief tonight, as Tuesday night is Yoga night for me, but I have picked out what I think is a decent 4-Team Accumulator, again bet the 4 trebles as well. These will be provided to FTS Subscribers from Wednesday, along with the ratings, you can jump on board for £100 for the season or £20 for the month before the price increase tomorrow via the homepage, so signup to get MLB bets, PGATour and Horse Racing selections here. All games start after midnight GMT so plenty of time to get bets on tonight. The Accumulator pays 7.93 with Unibet and we get back around +30pts if the 4-teams land thanks to the boost from the trebles. 1 x 2pt Accumulator and 4 x 2pt Trebles. Chicago Cubs are also worth a mention tonight, I expect them to have the measure of Seattle and get some decent fantasy points. Boston also could have been included against Oakland. Players of note from both teams below. COLORADO
CINCINATTI COLORADO ROCKIES (+102) take on Milwaukee but GERMAN MARQUEZ is a far better pitching option than Chacin and they have a slight power edge batting tonight. CLEVELAND INDIANS (-165) are away to the lowest ranked offense with Miami and have TREVOR BAUER at the plate. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-150) are also away to San Francisco who surprised them last night but with WALKER BUEHLER pitching I expect normal service to be resumed. CINCINATTI REDS (-115) have LUIS CASTILLO pitching for them, not too much of an offensive edge against the Mets but Jason Vargas is the 2nd-lowest ranked pitcher so expect some CIN runs. Players to Note: Catcher: REALMUTO (PHI 4.7k), CONTRERAS (CHC 4.6K)
1B: BELLINGER (LAD 5.8k), VOTTO (CIN 3.9k)
2B: DESCALSO (CHC 3.8k), SOGARD (TOR 4.1k)
3B: ARENADO (COL 5.2k), BRYANT (CHC 4.4k)
SS: STORY (COL 5.3k), BAEZ (CHC 5.6k)
OF: BETTS (BOS 5k), TROUT (LAA 5.7k), J.D. MARTINEZ (BOS 4.9k), BENETENDI (BOS 4.6k)  
MLB Preview Sun 28th April

MLB Preview Sun 28th April

3 out of 4 right last night, with only Washington failing in the dying stages. I'm a little short on time today so I'll just post the 4-fold accumulator and the pitcher and batter ratings below. The Accumulator pays 7.7/1 with Betfair and against I recommend throwing in 4 trebles to cover and potentially boost winnings when all 4 teams win. MINNESOTA (-190) KYLE GIBSON ST LOUIS CARDINALS (-140) JACK FLAHERTY BOSTON (-148) CHRIS SALE SAN DIEGO (+105) JOEY LUCCHESI



MLB Preview Sat 27th April

MLB Preview Sat 27th April

A rare wipeout last night but looking to get back on track with 7 games on the early slate and 7 on the later one. MINNESOTA (-286) JOSE BERRIOS The number 1 ranked offence takes on one of the worst offences at home with Jose Berrios averaging 22.24 DK pts, 3 wins from 5 games and facing one of the worst pitchers on the slate with a 28.3% K% rate at home. They have a huge 3 runs advantage and can justify strong favouritism tonight with the likes of NELSON CRUZ (OF) 4.7k, EDDIE ROSARIO (OF) 5.6k and JORGE POLANCO (SS) 5k looking like a strong stack for the Twins on the earlier or all-day slate. HOUSTON (-130) BRAD PEACOCK (pictured) can have the measure of Cleveland tonight after 2 poor outings, playing back at home on the earlier slate.  The pitcher has an excellent 37% strike-out rate against right-handed batters and excels with a 29.3% K% rate at home. The likes of ALEX BREGMAN (3B) 4.7k, JOSH REDDICK (OF) 4.3k and GEORGE SPRINGER (OF) 5.4k can all get runs against Shane Bieber who had a shocking outing last time, allowing 7 runs over less than 3 innings last time. WASHINGTON (-167) With STEPHEN STRASBOURG pitching at home, they can beat the 2nd-lowest ranked offence on the slate in San Diego with Eric Lauer a real pitching mismatch. ANTHONY RENDON (3B) 5.5k is back in the lineup tonight and along with YAN GOMES (C) 3.5k and BRIAN DOZIER (2B) 3.9k can get some runs on the board with a run advantage of 1.08. LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-205) CLAYTON KERSHAW can get back in winning form against the lowest-ranked offence at home to Pittsburgh who have the average Trevor Richards pitching. The superb CODY BELLINGER (1B/OF) 5.8k hit another homer last night and can do so again. Along with JUSTIN TURNER (3B) (3.7k), MAX MUNCY (1B/3B) 4.2k & A.J. POLLOCK (OF) 3.7k, they look a solid stack and can rank up the runs tonight with a run advantage of 1.7 The accumulator pays 5.66/1 with Betfair and again throw in 4 trebles.



As well as the above mentioned pitches and batters there are a few of note tonight. Tyler Mahle has a 6.22 ERA against lefties so MATT CARPENTER (3B) 4.1k is of major interest in the leadoff spot for St Louis Cardinals and DEXTER FOWLER (OF) 3.9K is another lefty to note. Jorge Lopez has a 5.64 ERA against lefties so BRIAN GOODWIN (OF) 4.3k and KOLE KALHOUN (OF) 4.2k can take full advantage for the LA Angels tonight NICK CASTELLANOS (OF) 4.2k can mash Reynaldo Lopez who struggles against right-handers RHYS HOSKINS (1B) 5.1k can also take advantage of Trevor Richards poor record against right-handed hitters. HUNTER DOZIER (1B/3B) 4.6 for Kansas City can get some runs agains Jaime Barria, he is one of the few KC bats I like tonight as he is swinging the bat well at the moment. The White Sox can win tonight against Detroit, I would have put them up as an outright bet but there are weather concerns so check this closer to the start time. The average Detroit pitcher Ryan Carpenter who struggles against righties in particular with an 8.27 ERA and the lowest strike-rate on the slate so both JOSE ABREU (1B) 4.6k and YOAN MONCADA (3B) 5.3k can get some runs.
MLB Preview 26th April

MLB Preview 26th April

Great result yesterday with the 9.58/1 Accumulator landing, you would also have boosted your profits by around +21pts with the trebles to 1pt stakes, so all-in-all a good day. Tonight we have a full slate of 15 games – which is heaven, although I have not had as much time to dig into too much detail due to a busy Saturday on horseracing. Despite Bauer getting the win for Cleveland, Gerrit Cole actually got more fantasy points due to his higher number of strikeouts, so I'll be placing a bit more focus on K% rates with pitchers going forward. ATLANTA BRAVES (-162) MAX FRIED is one of the best pitching options on the slate (ranks 3rd) for the joint-2nd best offense, up against the 19th worst offense in Colorado. He has won 3/4 games this season, has a huge 33.8% strike-rate against lefties, so should be able to take care of hitters like Blackmon, Murphy and Tapia and has a 21.7% against righties. The 25-year old has pitched an average of 6.03 innings with an average of 13.62 Draftkings points and has a good ERA of 2.00 at home. Colorado has a fair bit of power but I expect the youngster to get the win backed by a strong offense. HOUSTON (-135) have COLLIN MCHUGH pitching against Cleveland tonight, he strikes out Lefties at a 27.8% K% rate and righties at 34.1% but also a 35.1% at home so he goes in as a pitching option with 3 wins from 5 outings this season. He doesn't have too much to fear from Cleveland bats tonight and despite Korey Cluber pitching, he is not quite as good as he was the last few seasons. Houston offence should give him good backup to secure the win. NEW YORK YANKEES (-110) have JAMES PAXTON pitching and up against a poor San Francisco offence. He has been averaging 23.77 Fantasy Points and has the highest L-K9 figure of 14.67 on the slate and the 2nd best Siera after Scherzer. WASHINGTON (-185) MAX SCHERZER is just behind Fried on the Pitcher ratings, for the 7th best offense, pitching at home, facing up against the 2nd worst offense in San Diego who have one of the highest K% strike-out rates on the slate, with a poor pitcher in Matt Strahm in opposition. They should have no problem getting the win tonight and plenty of runs with a 1.38 Run Advantage. The Accumulator pays 7.48/1 and again I recommend throwing in Trebles to cover stakes if one lets us down. Fantasy Plays Pitchers – MAX FRIED (ATL) 8k & MAX SCHERZER (WAS) 10.4k & COLIN MCHUGH (HOU) 8k
Catchers – YADER MOLINA (STL) 3.9k & MIKE ZUNINO (TB) 4k
1st Base – JUSTIN SMOAK (TOR) 4.7k & LUKE VOIT (NYY) 4.5K
3rd Base – ANTHONY RENDON (WAS) 5k (if back from injury), HUNTER DOZIER (KC) 4.5k, MATT CARPENTER (STL) 4.1k
Short Stop – JORGE POLANCO (MIN) 5.1k & PAUL DEJONG (STL) 5k


MLB Preview Tue 30th April

MLB Preview 25th April

So, it's a 5-game late slate tonight, so we have to be right with our analysis. I was going to give tonight a miss, but I love a challenge so here goes and it's good to learn with a view to moving forward and improving. My team, pitcher and batter ratings are at the bottom of this post. CLEVELAND (+139) TREVOR BAUER – So, for the first time in an age, I am going against my top-rated offense Houston, simply due to the quality of the pitcher they are facing in Trevor Bauer. Now, Gerrit Cole is ranked 4th on pitcher ratings but he is 1/5 for the season, but he does excel at home. However, Houston only have a +0.8 run average on Cleveland tonight. Bauer has 25.82 average draftkings points this season, has pitched 6.44 average innings, the highest on this slate, is the 2nd best value play, even though he is highest priced, has a 1.6 ERA against lefties and 2.78 against righties which is better than any other pitcher tonuight, as well as striking out an average of 12 guys over 9 innings. Add in the fact he has an ERA of 2.59 away from home and high K% rates and we have a ‘shock' in store tonight. BOSTON (-190) RICK PORCELLO – The Boston/Detroit game has the 2 worst pitchers on the slate in terms of Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmerman. However, this game could be a shock in the making. The key is that the BOSTON offence ranks 2nd, compared to Detroit who are plum last, BUT they do have players who could destroy Porcello if he has a really, really bad day. I would not want either of these pitchers but BOSTON should win this, purely on their offensive superiority, marked by the highest run advantage on the slate of +1.8. However, I do think that some Detroit bats (listed below) could be value based on this bias, especially the likes of Gordon Beckham. I don't quite have the nerve to oppose Boston but Detroit could be a potential value call, we shall see how it goes. SEATTLE (-165) MARCO GONZALES – Now, MG is one of the lowest ranked pitchers but he is 4/6 this season and has the highest innings pitched (IP) average of 6.33 of everyone on the slate bar Bauer. The key though is that his opponent on the mound is a rookie in Taylor Hearn for one of the worst offences in Texas. They have home advantage and Seattle has a lot of power that could crush this kid tonight. I often like to take a punt on young guys but not in this situation tonight. However, this could go either way depending on whether the kid brings the heat and MG has an off-day. It's another that could provide an upset and again, we will learn tonight. CINCINATTI (-135) LUIS CASTILLO is ranked 2nd best pitcher on the slate, with an average of 25.82 DK points and ranks the best value but they are not playing on the main slate, so this is just a bet to add to the accumulator and offers no fantasy options. He is also up against a relatively poor pitcher in Julio Teheran (ranked 11th) who struggles away from home, whereas Castillo does better with a nice 30% K% rate. I expect Suarez and Votto to take advantage at home tonight. This is a little bit trickier than most nights, but the Acca pays 9.58 with Betfair and I'd recommend throwing in 4 Trebles to cover in case one lets us down. CLEVELAND
CINCINATTI From a Fantasy perspective, I'd be keen to leave out Boston Bats, as they are sure to be popular so I'd be contrarian and recommend the following at each position, bearing in mind that Cincinatti kick off just before midnight so are excluded. I haven't mentioned Nola but he is the 3rd best pitcher on the slate after Bauer and Castillo so I'll focus on these two guys tonight and look for value at the batting positions mixed with guys who have an advantage against poor pitchers. Pitcher – TREVOR BAUER (CLE) 10.6K, AARON NOLA (PHI) 9.6K
Catcher – JOHN HICKS (DET) 3.4K & TOM MURPHY (SEA) 4.1K
How to Profit from Betting

How to Profit from Betting

I've been analysing and betting on sports for over 30 years, started by picking out horses on the way to school and getting people to place my bets for me with the bookies, waiting outside in my school uniform for news of results, until I was legally able to enter betting shops on my own. With the online betting revolution, and the Betfair exchanges, there are far more options available to punters to make decent profits from sports betting – yet a very small percentage actually are able to do so. I've been betting professionally for over 15 years and am pleased to say that every single one of those years has been profitable, there have been some mistakes along the way, but I've learnt something from every one. Some key principals have enabled me to ‘beat the crowd' and so I thought I would share some of these insights below and what can prevent punters from making profits, some common mistakes and some rules to live by. It's important to note that you are not betting against a bookmaker but are actually betting against the millions of punters, gain an advantage over them and you will make decent profits over time. I have been running a sports advisory service for the best part of those 15 years and FormBet for over 10 years, making profits with my Best Bets advice for every single one of those years. You can get on board for the flat season and receive horse racing, golf and baseball advice via WhatsApp by signing up here for as little as £20 per month or £100 for the next 7 months till early November 2019.


If you blindly back every selection you fancy, ignoring whether the odds you are getting offer any value, then you will lose over time. Harry Findlay was a big odds-on punter but he has bankrupted himself twice over his betting career, largely by betting on odds-on shots, and ignoring value. Odds-on shots can offer value but you need to be right a lot more often to show long-term profits. Conversely, if you back too many big-priced selections then you will also struggle because you will go through longer losing spells, which can destroy your confidence and decimate your bankroll – they key is balance, to back those shorter priced runners you think have a better chance of success than their current odds suggest and also by throwing in the odds mid-big priced selection that can give occassional bankroll boosts. My average strike-rate for Best Bets are just over 12% with average odds of selections being around 14/1. This means losing runs can be long but over the last 10 years they have produced +1751pts profit, equating to a 23% return on investment. You can download a full spreadsheet of all selections over those last 10 years here. This leads onto my next RULE.


Part of the following is taken from this excellent article about Cognitive Bias in Sports Betting. When you are backing larger priced selections, you need to be patient, disciplined and not be affected by short-term results. It's vital to maintain a long-term mindset over an entire season, if not a year. Recency bias is when we give more importance to recent events when we make decisions. It’s a mental timesaver based on the idea that if something can be remembered easily, it must be important. There are multiple examples of this trap in betting. Here are a few:
  1. You make a right decision not to bet, but it wins (missed winner). So next time in the same situation you back it (even though it’s a bad bet)
  2. You make a terrible decision to bet, and it wins, so you make the same bad decision next time and back it again.
  3. When you’re on a winning streak or get a significant return, you bet more substantial amounts on more bets (instead of the correct amount on value bets) because you think when you bet, you win.
  4. You notice a specific characteristic in a recent winner, so decide that’s an important factor in picking future winners. For example, you choose to oppose every team that played a mid-week European (UCL or UEL) game because you had some success with this strategy one weekend.
  5. Increasing your volume just because you’re on a winning run.
  6. You quit your betting strategy and give up on your bankroll management because of a small losing run.
All of your betting decisions should be void of any emotion. If you trust your own selection process and staking plan then everything should be done in a very systematic and mechanical fashion and not reliant on the highs and lows of short term gains and losses. Of course this is easier said than done and a trap a majority of punters will fall into at one time or another. There are many more biases but ultimately you have to be mentally strong and have an approach you can stick to, which leads to the next rule.


When betting, you HAVE to be consistent with your betting, staking, approach and maintain your bankroll. Recording of results is vital, if you do not do this, and analyse your betting patterns then you cannot fix any mistakes and do not have an idea of where your strengths lie. Every bet you place should be recorded in an Excel spreadsheet, you must know your strike-rate, return on investment and be able to analyse where your best results occur. For example, I know that backing horses shorter than 2/1 is very difficult to maintain long-term profitability, even if you are getting 2/1 about what you believe should be a shorter price, because you cannot always be right in your assessment and need some ‘wiggle room' – it's also vital to look back and recognise that even your losers were not a ‘wrong' bet but that your analysis was spot-on and you just didn't get lucky on that occassion. Finding the correct staking plan for you is always a balancing act between making sure you don’t over bet and risk going broke, but also betting enough to ensure you maximise your profits. Risk of Ruin is a concept used in gambling and finance relating to the likelihood of losing one’s bankroll to the point that it cannot be recovered and is worth reading up about before you get started. You must also maintain a bankroll and be consistent, not just with your analysis and approach, but with your staking. For example, when betting for value on bigger-priced selections, you should ideally be risking no more than 1%-2% of your total bankroll on any single wager. If you have a £1000 bank then each stake should be £10-£20 maximum – this ensures you can handle losing streaks, stakes will increase in-line with the bank increasing and decrease when your bankroll reduces. You also need to eliminate ‘hunch' or ‘fun' bets and always be professional in your outlook, treat it like an investment.


It's really useful to diversify with your investments and to not focus solely on one sport. However, you should always look to specialise in one particular sport and get to know as much about it as possible. I have been studying horses since I was 14 years old at the back of the newspapers, in the days before the internet, yes I am that old. I know the pattern race schedule, know the trainers, jockeys and sports inside-out. This enables me to really have a deep knowledge about horse racing and to constantly be looking for new up-and-coming trainers, jockeys, sires etc and to be constantly looking to build on that knowledge. However, I discovered many years ago the importance of diversifying into other sports, adding PGA golf betting into my armoury, which means a lower strike-rate but winners at often huge odds up to 100/1 – which again requires discipline and a long-term mindset. More recently, I have added in Major League Baseball into my betting armoury, learning as much as I can about the sport, not only betting on outright games, but branching out into Daily Fantasy Sports where you only need to be better than a few other players to show profits, even if the team you fancy loses. Don't take this too far and bet on everything, you need to maintain a certain amount of space and time for analysis and not spread your betting bank too thinly. Pick 2-3 sports and learn as much about them as possible. I also do spread betting on the financial markets, very much with a longer-term mindset as opposed to day trading, spending only an hour or so each day looking for new stock opportunities or to close out existing positions. I personally focus on Class 1/2/3 Handicaps and Group races, especially on the flat but that also applies to jump racing. This helps narrow the focus and allows for only a few bets midweek and a few more at weekends and the big meetings, you will learn how to look for the profile of a certain winner for a certain race and get to know the group of horses better. When betting for value you should largely avoid those races that tend to go to shorter-priced runners, like maiden races on the flat, novice hurdle and chases for example. All successful businesses specialise and betting should be no exception. By specialising you will understand better and research more ably your particular chosen field. Fewer, more focused wagers based on sound statistics and research is a much better way of investing hard earned money than employing a scatter-gun approach. Look closely at your betting patterns and see which area is ripe for specialisation.


One of the keys is to use software and resources to improve your analysis, both pre and post betting. There are a number of excellent racing software packages out there, many vary in price and you need to factor in these costs into your betting bankroll. For example, you could shell out an absolute fortune for the likes of Timeform, Proform or Raceform – however, these are all at high-end prices and most just have more ‘flashing lights', bells and whistles and are like taking a sledgehammer to a small nail, overkill. I developed my own ratings software many years ago and offered it a value price but the admin actually got in the way of my own betting and impacted on the time I could spend analysing selections. When I discovered GeeGeez Gold, built by my friend Matt Bisogno, it was a godsend. It can do everything all the more expensive packages can do and offers value, you can get on board for just £1 a month to trial it and the costs are significantly lower than the competitors without sacrificing anything in terms of resources and functionality. For golf, there are plenty of resources at and for Baseball both and the excellent website for all Fantasy Sports needs. You can create a spreadsheet and use Macros and Web Queries to download data that you require and perform your own analysis and build your own ratings models at the likes of which can be invaluable to your analysis – you need to be keen and curious and research and study everything you can, but at the same time not invest too much time that takes you away from the actual betting and some spare time to create space in your life – the key is balance.


It's the easiest thing in the world to look for other bets if your initial selections go against you on any on any one day, it's important to master this and wait for another day, there will always be other days, don't rush yourself into chasing losses. If events are unfolding against you there is always a temptation to pour more money into the bet to try and force a profit. This tactic only increases the chances that you will lose more. Likewise, adopting the strategy after a loss that you must recoup your losses by betting more on the next event is also a recipe for disaster. Again this comes down to mastering your own Psychology, recognising biases and plugging ‘leaks'


Most bookmakers nowadays close winning account, you can minimise this by opening accounts with as many bookmakers and exchanges as possible and always betting with the one that offers the best odds on your selections. Using Best Odds Guaranteed is also vital to ensure you can profit from drifters and maximise your returns. Using a resouce such as Oddschecker is vital in this regard. Also look for bookmaker offers, enhanced place terms and bonuses as these can help significantly. A number of bookmakers such as Bet365 and Betfair can offer you a FREE bet in another race if you select a winner at certain odds in specific races each day. SUMMARY If you follow the above rules, then you will succeed as a punter, ignoring any one of them will significantly decrease your chances of long-term profits. You need to master ALL of the above to achieve long-term profits with your betting investments, and view them as investments and not ‘fun' bets or take them lightly. Most punters lose because they ignore one or all of the above, work and study hard, have fun with it and always be curious and analyse each and every bet you place, both before and after the event to ensure you are not falling into any of the above pitfalls. Signup to the FormBet Tipster Service (FTS) to get selections based on all of the above, with detailed analysis provided via WhatsApp. Take out a subscription to GeeGeez Gold and build your own strategy and approach alongside the service selections and you will transform your own betting.