MLB Preview 23rd April

MLB Preview 23rd April

The Baseball model is coming along nicely and should be ready next week. It's primarily designed to find strong Fantasy players but it can give indications to good bets. Below is a snapshot of the Pitcher and Batter ratings and I'm using some of these new ratings to determine some bets on today's main slate. So, these are “Team and Pitcher” ratings. As we can see HOUSTON (-134) are once again the top-rated team on the slate with WADE MILEY the 9th-highest rated pitcher, but they are up against the 5th best offence in Minessota and have a run advantage of +0.56. They are forecast to hit 5.03 runs and are up against Minnesota pitcher Michael Pineda who is only 19th on the Pitcher ratings.
Houston Bats – ALEX BREGMAN (3b) is the 5th highest rated batter on the slate and can do well against Pineda who struggles against right-handed hitters. He is a good backup option for 3rd base. JOSE ALTUVE (2b) is also a high-rated right-handed hitter who can get results against Pineda. I'd also throw in catcher ROBINSON CHIRINOS for a nice Houston stack. OAKLAND (-143) at home against Texas with a value-priced pitcher in FRANKIE MONTAS are worth a bet here. Montas has won 3 of his 4 outings this term for an average 19.02 Draftkings points and at £7600 he looks a value option for the secondary pitcher, despite only being ranked 13th. I won't go for any Oakland bats as they are up against the 2nd-highest rated pitcher on the slate in Lance Lynn but Texas may struggle for runs. WASHINGTON (-110) are away at Coors Field and have the 4th best picher on the slate in PATRICK CORBIN but he still looks a good option and is one of the best value pitchers on the slate. He has a Draftkings points average of 25.25 which is the best on the slate. Colorado are only 21st in offence and have a poor pitcher drafted in from Triple-A so they hold the edge here and the bats are worth a look. However, Colorado right-handers are worth a bet on Corbin's weaker side given the park factor.
Washington Bats – ANTONY RENDON (3B) is the highest rated bat on the slate and is a must for 3B position if fully recovered from being hit on the elbow on Saturday night. TREA TURNER (SS) is one of the best value bats on the slate and is always worth putting in at short-stop because of his ability to steal lots of bases.
Colorado Bats – TREVOR STORY (SS) is the 9th best bat on the slate and NOLAN ARENADO (3B) is the 14th best so both can get some hits tonight if Corbin mis-fires. NEW YORK YANKEES (-105)  CHRIS STRATTON is one of the lowest rated pitchers but he is up against an equally poor pitcher in Jonathan Loasiga, it's the Yankees offence that looks strong here and is the best stack on the slate just ahead of Houston.
New York Yankees Bats – LUKE VOIT (1B), AARON JUDGE (OF) and GLEYBER TORRES (2B) are worth noting here in good matchups and are highly rated.   I'd recommend 3 trebles and the accumulator that pays 8.55/1 with Skybet
HOUSTON
OAKLAND
WASHINGTON
NY YANKEES

Batters to Watch

Below are my batter ratings, still a bit of work to do but they can help identify value players. CATCHERS – YASMIN GRANDAL (MIL) $4400 and ROBINSON CHIRINOS (HOU) $3800
1st BASE – PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT (STL) $4800, CODY BELLINGER (LAD) $5700 and LUKE VOIT (NYY) $4200
2nd BASE – WHIT MERRIFIELD (KC) $4600, JOSE ALTUVE (HOU) $5000 and GLEYBER TORRES (NYY) $3900
3rd Base – ANTHONY RENDON (WAS) $5600, ALEX BREGMAN (HOU) $4800, MATT CARPENTER (STL) $4000 are all noteworthy in positive matchups.
SHORT STOP – TREA TURNER (WAS) $4600, TREVOR STORY (COL) $5200, PAUL DEJONG (STL) $4900
OUTFIELDERS – MIKE TROUT (LAA) $5500, CHRISTIAN YELICH (MIL) ($5800), AARON JUDGE (NYY) $5100, AUSTIN MEADOWS (TB) $4900 and TOMMY PHAM (TB) $4800 Top Value Plays – TREA TURNER , GREGORY POLANCO, ERIC SOGARD, MITCH GARVER

MLB Preview Sunday 21st April

MLB Preview Sunday 21st April

HOUSTON ASTROS (-185) with COLLIN MCHUGH pitching are strongly fancied tonight. CM is a solid fantasy play tonight, has 4 wins from 4 games, has a 29.1% K% rate against left-handed batters and 35.8% against righties, with an average of 6 innings pitched and 24.2 Draftkings Fantasy Points. They are up against Texas who have Shelby Miller pitching, who is close to the bottom of my pitcher rankings so the Astros batters could have a field day with a +1.4 run advantage so they look a great stack.
Houston Bats – ALEX BREGMAN (3B), JOSE ALTUVE (2B), ROBINSON CHIRINOS (C), GEORGE SPRINGER (OF) & YULI GURRIEL (1B/3B)

TAMPA BAY RAYS (-115) and the excellent TYLER GLASNOW takes the mound. He hss a 3.01 ERA at home and although Boston have a lot of power, they could struggle here.
Houston Bat – AUSTIN MEADOWS (OF)

NEW YORK YANKEES (-230) are the strongest favourites on the board with the excellent JAMES PAXTON piching at Yankee stadium against Kansas City. He has the highest K9 rate of 14.73 on the slate with a strike-rate of 34.8% and a 2.98 ERA at home. Even with Judge out, they can take this win. Jorge Lopez really struggles against lefties and again have stack potential.
Yankees Bats – MIKE TAUCHMAN (OF) and BRETT GARDNER (OF)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (-117) CLAYTON KERSHAW can nail the win here against Milwaukee. His 2.23 SIERA is the best on the slate and he should have the measure of the Brewers bats here.
Dodgers Bats – CODY BELLINGER (1B/OF), MAX MUNCY (1B/3B), JOC PEDERSON(OF)

4 x TREBLES and 1 ACCUMULATOR pays 8.25/1 with Paddy Power

HOUSTON
TAMPA BAY
NEW YORK
LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Fantasy Batters To Watch – All of the Bats above +

JORGE POLANCO (SS) Minnesota
NELSON CRUZ (OF) Minnesota
HOWIE KENDRICK (2B) Washington
ANTHONY RENDON (3B) Washington

A ‘Betting Exchange Profits’ Special – 2 New Tipsters Reviewed In BIG New SBC Magazine

A ‘Betting Exchange Profits’ Special – 2 New Tipsters Reviewed In BIG New SBC Magazine

The latest SBC Magazine (Issue 110) is out now and it's a Betting Exchange Profits special featuring reviews of 2 ‘Exchange Friendly' tipster services.

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There is also a special feature on the new £500 Minimum Bet Guarantees offered by several bookmakers, the value they provide and who they are suitable for.

All told its a bumper edition and a must-read if you are looking for sustainable, exchange friendly tipsters to follow. SBC Issue 110 is available now with a Smart Betting Club membership.

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Using GeeGeez Gold Instant Expert to find winners

Using GeeGeez Gold Instant Expert to find winners

I wrote in a recent blog post about the important of post-race analysis, using GeeGeez Gold to develop a strategy to find winners. There have been some decent selections the last few days using GeeGeez Gold Instant Expert and other data like sire and trainer stats to find decent winners.

ToBeFair was one such winner, who was strong across all Instant Expert categories and won at 15/2 at Cheltenham, having come off the back of a decent 2nd in the Pertemps at the festival, easily the best form on offer in the race. I was surprised he went off such a decent price – a few thought the race came too quickly, some preferred more ‘fashionable' yards – but form and stats are everything in this game.

As we can see from the above Instant Expert snapshot on PLACE stats, ToBeFair was proven on the going, course and had the most amount of places in this class and over this distance, so was a very strong selection.

Earlier in the day, I put up a couple of selections for free on Twitter, in a maiden race at Newmarket, CLERISY (winner at 8/1) and GENTLEWOMAN e/w (2nd at 16/1) and again you can see the strength of the Sire Data available on GeeGeez Gold cards, flagging both as being well-bred and strong stats contender in the conditions of today's race, as well as representing in-form trainers and jockeys with solid records at the course. It also highlighted the importance of taking Best Odds Guaranteed as the winner drifted and the 2nd was well-supported, Gentlewoman is definitely one to watch after that seriously promising debut and can be a ‘tracker' horse. Another feature of GeeGeez Gold.

 

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MOHAATHER found using GeeGeez Gold

MOHAATHER found using GeeGeez Gold

Saturday's Greenham Stakes looked a wide-open affair. The FormBet Tipster Service will be focusing on Group races and big handicaps through the season and, for subscribers, MOHAATHER was provided as a strong 2pt win bet for the race based on strength of GeeGeez Instant Expert and Angles. First of all using Instant Expert on GeeGeez Gold (above), as described in an earlier post, the selection was strong across all categories, going, class, distance, course and field size. The key though was that the trainer had a 41% win strike-rate and 61% place strike-rate with last-time out winners (see below) and the selection had won a key trial over C&D last backend in the Horris Hill Stakes. You can customise these stats categories to your liking to flag interesting runners each day.   This race highlighted the power of GeeGeez Gold when looking for strong stats selections in race and you can grab a 1-month trial for £1 here.

 

MLB Wednesday 10th April

MLB Wednesday 10th April

Well last night was a real blowout, especially so for Jacob De Grom who flopped badly. Minnesota have a WRC+ of 125 which means they create 25% more runs on average than other teams in the league. Still developing my model, which should be ready in a few weeks but perhaps highlights the need for value and why I am swerving Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard tonight, who is the 2nd-highest priced option on the slate. Of course, any pitcher can have a bad night, and it may be an over-reaction but I am erring on the side of caution. TAMBA BAY RAYS -147 have the excellent TYLER GLASNOW pitching for them and they have a 0.76 runs advantage over the White Sox, who really only have the elite batter YOAN MACADA and perhaps TIM ANDERSON in their lineup to worry Glasnow. However, Tampa Bay have been consistently hitting across the board and can land the win here. Ground-ball pitcher BRANDON WOODRUFF for MILWAUKEE BREWERS -125 can also have a good game against the Angels, with Trout doubtful after leaving the game with a groin strain last night. They have a run advantage of 0.42 with the likes of YELICH, GRANDAL and co. to give them an edge. JACK FLAHERTY pitches for the ST LOUIS CARDINALS -107 at home to the Dodgers. He has a 28.6% K% rate at home which jumps to over 31% against right-handed pitchers so I'll take him for the win tonight with notable hitters like PAUL GOLDSCHIMDT and PAUL DEJONG likely to rack up runs. For the final leg I'm going to look to HOUSTON ASTROS -113 against the Yankees with COLLIN McHUGH a marginal favourite here. He, along with Woodruff would be by choices for Starting Pitcher 2 with Glasnow. The accumulator pays 8.82 with Skybet and again I would throw in 3 trebles.

I expect to have a model ready in the next few weeks and will publish pitcher and batter ratings along with video previews through the season.