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Trends Analysis can work particularly well in staying handicap chases. I used the excellent free trends provided by GeeGeez on their blog to perform an elimination method. You can also download ratings for 14 races today for just £2 via the homepage, 8 races of which have filtered, recommended win selections.

Just looking at the Top-10 trends narrows it down to just 2 horses with THE TWO AMIGOS 20/1 and CAPTAIN CHAOS 20/1. Marginal preference is for the latter who also hits the 11th trend of being Irish bred (10/17) and so would be the preferred selection but then I also have The Two Amigos further up my own ratings for the race. I actually have Elegant Escape Top-rated by some way and a shade of value at 7/2 with 2nd-rated Yala Enki also a more speculative each-way value bet at 9/1. I'd probably back last year's winner ELEGANT ESCAPE to defend his crown, given how far clear he is on my ratings but I'll throw in the two trends selections for each-way money.

ELEGANT ESCAPE – win @ BetfairSP
THE TWO AMIGOS – e/w @ 20/1
CAPTAIN CHAOS – e/w @ 20/1

Here are the trends the selections hit -:

2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

17/17 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
11/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Irish bred (Captain Chaos only)