With racing abandoned at Newbury and Doncaster today, thought I would post some free ratings for Chelmsford tonight. The All-Weather model is still developing but already producing the goods, however, it's worth noting that I don't often rate class 5 contests, and I'm also rating my first Class 6. A win for any of the Top-Rated will produce a profit, let's hope we get a couple. The ratings are absolutely on fire at the moment. In the last 2 weeks they have a 33% strike-rate, +41pts profit and a 57% return on investment – better than any other ratings provider out there I am sure.
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The odds-on favourite Bobby Biscuit is only 2nd on the ratings, but is the likeliest winner. However, I have NAWAR top-rated and available at a best-priced 16/1 so is clearly the value in the race, and the best value contender tonight, for the cautious they can always go each-way. All-Weather handicaps have a 27.7% strike-rate but actually are losing -3.4% at SP – however, if you bet at SP then you need more help than the ratings provide! I like to provide ‘worst case scenario' and they are actually profitable with an 8% Yield overall at best early prices and around the same at BSP. This class of race is profitable with a 23.1% strike-rate and 5.8% yield. The Day of the Week (DW) i.e. Saturday has a 23.4% strike-rate and a slight loser at SP. At this distance Top-Rated runners have a 23.9% strike-rate with a 5% Yield and those at 16/1 SP or shorter have a 25.7% strike-rate and 0.3% Yield. These columns are invaluable at determining where the value lies.
UNIVERSAL EFFECT rates a bet at 5/1 – it's just about value especially as Top-Rated horses at 5/1 or less SP have a 32.3% strike-rate and 6.3% Yield. However, it's worth noting the proximity of Philamundo, who is only one point behind on the ratings. Again, the more cautious could perhaps cover stakes with a bet on the 2nd-rated, how you play the ratings is entirely up to you.
PROMOTE at 3/1 rates a stronger 2pt bet. It does not have the lowest FTS rating, but it does have the biggest superiority over the 2nd-rated from the 4 rated races. This is a big-field though, and luck in running, draw etc all play a part. However, top-rated runners at 3/1 or less have a near 40% strike-rate with 6.7% Yield so it looks a worthy 2pt bet. Those looking for some each-way value could do worse than take a look at 16/1 shot SPIRIT OF MAY.
A big field, the first class 6 I've rated (hence the empty CLSR (class strike-rate) and CLYI (class yield)! I'm not a big fan of lower grade races, but if you don't try to rate them then you never know if they are worth looking at. MONGOLIA is top-rated and again worth a small bet at 5/1 – again horses at this SP or less have a 32.3% strike-rate. The thing I like here is that Top-Rated runners at this distance have a near 31% strike-rate and massive 28.8% Yield so it's worth a bet. Again, for those looking for each way value, VIN D'HONNEUR is interesting at 20/1.
A win for any of these will give us a small profit, obviously we can also do a ‘dutch' across all 4 of these selections, something I call a multi-race dutch, where a win for any guarantees a profit and more than 1 gives us a bit more. You could also do a couple of each-ways in the last 2 races – again, the Top-Rated backed blindly since June show a near +100pts profit, and that is at SP, profits can be enhanced at BSP – you can also look at combination forecasts and tricasts.
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