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With the flat season starting this week, I thought I would take a look at some of the last year's renewal for clues.
The 2018 renewal was won by Addeybb but it often pays to look beyond the obvious for placed runners at bigger odds. For example, if Gabrial had a clearer run, he may well have finished closer than 4th at 20/1 and Mitchum Swagger ran well to take 3rd at 12/1. The biggest mistake punters make is often looking for a winner, rather than looking for the best value.
It's interesting to note that if we look at Instant Expert, and check the PLACE button, we get more detailed information for each runners win/places over the day's going, class, at the course, the distance, field size and their current rating compared to their last winning mark. It's important not just to look at % figures but look at total places for a bigger sample size and to provide potential each-way value.
So, here we can see that Mitchum Swagger had the highest places on the soft going, Gabrial also had the 4th highest number of placings (6) in this class and was 2/2 in terms of placed effort at the course, as well as the highest amount of places at the distance and both were on a lower mark than their highest last winning rating by 1lb and 4lb respectively, in fact Gabrial was the best handicapped horse in the race in that regard.
The runners were drawn 10, 9, 11 and 7 suggesting mid-drawn runners held sway in the softer going. 4 of the Top-4 were also amongst the highest 4 on official ratings in the field.
As we can see above the winner Addeybb's sire Pivotal had a positive Win record over the Flat-Middle distance category, as well as the trainer being a positive at the course over the last year and 5-year period and the jockey James Doyle was also in form over the last 14/30-day period – again these stats are like gold when considering a selection.
Gabrial was also in the Top-2 of the Racing Post RPR ratings, Top-3 of Topspeed and 2nd on Peter May's Speed Ratings. Gabrial's jockey Jamie Spencer was also a positive on recent and course form and trainer Richard Fahey was also in good recent form. Gabrial also was a C&D winner and had finished a very close 4th in the 2017 renewal.
The 2017 Renewal was won by BRAVERY at 20/1, beating the favourite Oh This is Us, with Donncha and Gabrial in 3rd and 4th.
This time, we can look to the amazing PACE stats for clues. I always like to click the ALL button to get as much data as possible. We can see from this that Hold-Up runners had historically done well at this trip and both GABRIAL and eventual winners BRAVERY showed up strongly in this respect. If we also look at the DRAW tab we can see that Hold-Up, High Drawn runners were profitable with a 2.04 AE and a 2.86 IV, producing 2 wins and 3 places, another clue pointing towards Bravery.
The DECS are not yet finalised for the 2019 Lincoln but it's interesting to note GABRIAL lines up again. He may be a little long in the tooth to win a race of this nature but I expect him to run well again. At this stage I quite like the look of THIRD TIME LUCKY at 25/1 who has 4/6 places on the current going, the highest number of 10 places in this class, 3rd highest number of places (9) at the mile distance and the 2nd highest number of places (4) in a big field size. He had a decent prep with a 3rd at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago and can give us a good run at a price.