This Saturday 24th August, sees a couple of cracking handicaps in the Melrose and Ebor. Trends analysis is an excellent way to narrow down the field and can give additional strength behind selections used via a ratings, or alternative, method.
Thankfully, GeeGeez publishes trends for all the big-races and using GeeGeez Gold, you can really narrow down qualifiers, or rather rule out non-qualifiers, much easier and quicker. These two races took me 10 minutes.
One of the strongest trends is that 14 of the 16 winners had not raced at York before and 14 of 16 also had 4 or more runs that season.
The next strongest trends are 12/16 which are “Won carrying 9-0 or less”, “Had won over 12f or further” and “Had a Top-5 finish last time out”.
The only real strong'ish trend that remains is 10/16 were drawn in stall 8 or lower.
Those trends get us down to just 2 qualifiers, JUST HUBERT 16/1 and LAND OF OZ 10/1 so take your pick from that pair. I'll probably go with the one that is highest on my ratings for the race, which are already available to subscribers – you can join today here, and get access to all Saturday's rated races.
I've backed some great winners of this race over the years, some from trends analysis, most from ratings and this year I'm pretty confident with the FTS ratings and trends combination to have a couple of chances of finding the winner.
We start with the 2 strongest trends 16/17 “Carried 9-4 or less” and were “Aged 6 or younger”. Amazingly, that leaves us with 6 from the potential 24-strong field.
We then look at the next strongest trends, 14/17 “Won from a double-figure stall” and “Had won at least over 12f before).
That gets us to 3 contenders DRAMATIC QUEEN 25/1, and both the 2 reserves, CYPRESS CREEK 20/1 and PROSCHEMA 20/1.
The ideal scenario is that none of the reserves take part and leaves us with a solo trends bet in DRAMATIC QUEEN at 25/1. However, if both the trends picks get in then we can look to the next strongest trend which is 12/17 “Carried 9-1 or less” – that would give us a sole qualifier in PROSCHEMA, so keep an eye on non-runners would be my advice, back DRAMATIC QUEEN and look to follow up with PROSCHEMA if it takes part.