This is the October results update of backing the Top-Rated FormBet runners for 1pt stakes, at BetfairSP (BSP), less 5% assumed commission.
You can download a full stats results excel sheet, since the ratings started at the end of June 2019 here.
It's recommended to back all Top-Rated selections blindly at BSP, there is little difference in the profitability compared with obtaining the best early odds, especially considering Rule4's and non-runners. It's also easier to just place all bets first thing in the morning, or the evening before at BSP, without the hard work of hunting around for a bookmaker that will still accept bets! I recommend having a 400pt bank and backing 0.5% (max 1%) stakes initially. So if your bank was £400 your stakes would be £2. There are also ways around the minimum stakes bet of £2 on Betfair if you wanted to start with a smaller bank.
In October we showed a +42.56pts profit for a 20.6% ROI by backing all top-rated runners at BSP less 5% Commission.
There were 207 Top-Rated runners in October. 48 of them won, which equates to a 23% Strike-Rate, showing a profitability of +42.56pts at BetfairSP to 1pt stakes and a 20.6% Return On Investment. By the 12th October we were -30pts down on the month, but we rallied a near +70pts profit in the final 2 weeks, as the all-weather and jumps ratings models improved. All-Weather Handicaps (AH) showed a +20pts profit and 67% ROI, Handicap Chases (JHC) made +29pts profit for a 67% ROI. Flat handicaps (FH) lost -13pts or -36% ROI, possibly due to end-of-season form on very soft/heavy going leading to some strange results. Same for non-handicaps on the flat (FN) which lost -16% ROI but only 4.87pts down. Jumps Handicap Hurdles (JHH) were losing -21pts and -54% ROI by the 15th October but a few nice winners put us into profit, albeit by less than 1pt for a 2% ROI on the month, but a very nice recovery and promising for the future. There are question marks over 2yo Nursery handicaps, conditional/amateur and apprentice handicaps and novice handicaps over hurdles and fences, but again we need some more data to determine which races are best avoided from a ratings consistency and profitability viewpoint. Early days for jumps non-handicap chase and hurdles, hurdles looking far more consistent and profitable than chases in the early stages but more data required.
CLASS OF RACE
There were small losses at Class 5 levels but the profits came in Class 2 contests with a +38pts profit and 74% ROI. Class 1's lost -4.67pts or -15% ROI. There are patterns emerging regarding class of race, but we need another month worth of data to make some clear decisions in that regard.
DAYS OF WEEK
Thursday, Friday and Saturday were the most profitable days, Thursday with a +15pts profit and 44% ROI, Saturday with a +21pts profit and 40% ROI and Friday with a +10pts profit and 27% ROI. The worse days were Sunday and Monday with a combined loss of -9pts. Monday has the lowest strike-rate of all days at just 13%, albeit from a single-figure sample size, but may be best avoided in the future. I'll keep an eye on the Sabbath as well but less rated races may improve in that respect.
RANK OF WINNERS
I was very happy this month, despite a lower than ideal 22.2% win strike-rate, that a decent +42pts profit and 20% ROI was achieved, the best ROI since July's +32pts and 22% ROI. November will start off volatile with a lot more novice contests and jumps and all-weather races taking over from flat, which finishes soon. My goal of 50% of winners from the Top-3 of the ratings was achieved and I'd be looking for the win% to get closer to 25% over the next few months and perhaps even higher.
THE MONTH AHEAD
I expect a strong finish to November based on what I have seen so far and with further filtering of races to exclude, profitability will increase again. I'm very excited about the jumps and all-weather seasons based on the above figures.
At this point I am going to be looking at the following filters with regards to race selection -:
Flat Non-Handicaps – Top-Rated runners in Class 1 contests had a 34% Win Strike-Rate with a 2% Yield. Races of 7f or less were easily the most profitable with a +14pts profit and 17% Yield so that could be a focus for next year, if we only focus on Class 1 contests then we get a 40% win rated with a +18pts profit and 25% Yield. We all want to get the winner of the Guineas, Derby etc but perhaps it's best to focus on Class 1, shorter distances for the non-handicaps on the flat. Juvenile (2yo) Class 1 contests showed a 52% strike-rate with a +15pts profit and 45% ROI, so this looks particularly good.
Flat Handicaps – Backing Top-Rated runners at 12/1 or less had a 24% strike-rate, gave a +67pts profit and 22% ROI which is excellent considering they have only been running since the very end of June. Monday's again proved unprofitable. Unlike non-handicaps, focusing on races at 1 mile (8 furlongs) or further, improve profitability with a 27% strike-rate, +63pts profit and 35% ROI. Adding in the odds-filter gives us +68pts profit and a 39% ROI. One for next year.
All-Weather Handicaps – Possibly Class 1, 2 and 3 races only gives a +20pts profit and 60% Yield. You could also get a +19pts profit by focusing on the Top-Rated that are 12/1 or less, which has provided a historical 35% ROI. Combining both Class and Max odds filters gives a 35% strike-rate with a +23pts profit and 73% Yield, so seems a good approach, at least until a 20/1 Top-Rated runner goes in so I'll just put in place a class filter 1-3 filter at this stage.
Jumps Handicap Chases – All classes look good, except Class 1's which are 0/7 but it's a small sample size. Odds range to focus on for these seem to be between 9/4 and 20/1 – by focusing on this odds-range you would have had a +19pts profit and 32% ROI but that is not much better than the non-filtered +17pts profit and 24% ROI so I'll not filter these races at this stage. I'm very wary of, and will probably avoid, all amateur, apprentice, conditional and novice handicap chase and hurdle races, as they have only produced 1 x 3/1 winner from a number of races rated, so they may be too volatile.
Jumps Handicap Hurdle – There are no clear clues here regarding class, distance or odds. They are very hard to predict but it's definitely worth looking to focus on races at 2 1/2 miles (20 furlongs) or less as they seem more predictable and focusing on them produced a +5pts profit with 10% ROI. Those at 9/1 or less give a mild increase of +6pts profit and 12% ROI, but we simply don't have enough sampled races to add any filters at this stage, apart from the aforementioned amateur, apprentice, conditional and novice handicaps, and just have to allow the model time to settle down.
Even smaller samples for novice chase and hurdle contests, although at this stage the novice chases are 0/7 and the novice hurdles 3/7 with a 19% ROI – we have to wait and see with these, along with Non-Handicaps on the all-weather, where I tend to focus on decent class stakes races.
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