A similar system, based on 2yo sire data only on Tapeta surfaces, recently produced a nice 28/1 recently with Copperlight (runs in the 5:35 at Wolverhampton today), who returned a generous 32 BSP. Copperlight's sire Poet's Voice has a +69pts profit and 90% ROI, so is one of the most profitable Tapeta sires out there.
Since 2014, this particular Tapeta 2yo system has shown a +310 points profit with a 52% Yield and continues to produce the goods. There is a 40/1 qualifier today at Wolverhampton!
POLYTRACK System 1 – Sires Only
I have a Polytrack system, similar again to the one I posted on Tapeta, where we combine profitable sires with trainers. This particular angle has a +344pts profit with a 50% Yield. That means, these two all-weather systems combined, that cover all courses have shown over +650pts profit since 2014. There is even better to come though, so read on.
Looking for these qualifiers on a daily basis can be a laborious job, but with GeeGeez Gold Query Tool, you can build these ‘angles' and qualifiers will be automatically highlighted, both in the GeeGeez Query Tool itself, on the racecards and in a Query Tool Reports tab, meaning there is no excuse to miss future qualifiers and it just makes it easier to track results.
This Polytrack system has already produced a 4/1 winner with HARRY'S BAR and a 12/1 winner in FIELDS OF DREAMS (available at 14/1) at Lingfield Park yesterday.
THE RIGHT MINDSET
It's a neat, little system, with a win strike-rate of 23%, better than the 17% of the Tapeta system, so we still have to expect 75%+ of qualifiers to lose. This is hard for most punters to expect, the biggest factor holding back the majority of them from making a profit, is the lack of patience required to follow such a system and view the long-term. Most punters prefer regular winners, because they can't handle the losing runs, regardless of profitability. Usually, if you have a high strike-rate system, profitability is diminished, often significantly, far better a lower strike-rate, higher profits and just be strong mentally – it's a balance between finding enough winners at decent prices to boost profitability, we need to sacrifice win-rate.
A horse is only as good as it's last race, and a punter only remembers recent results. It requires a complete mindset-shift to be able to follow a system, or a set of ratings, and maintain the discipline required to see out unavoidable losing runs.
We can of course filter further, to improve strike-rate but this affects profitability and also we run into sample size problems. I prefer to have a long-term outlook and not be phased by losing runs, but it does take a strong temperament, ability to stay calm under pressure and have faith in your research.
RESEARCHING POLYTRACK SIRES
Courses – Lingfield, Kempton and Chelmsford are the 3 current Polytrack All-Weather surfaces, so first thing we do, is select the date range from 1/1/2014 until 31/12/2022. The reason I put a future end date range, is that it means the Angle automatically updates with ongoing results and I can track it easier without having to mess with end dates. Then we select those tracks in GeeGeez Query Tool and also the Race Code as Flat AW, so we don't get anything funky with Kempton and Lingfield jumps races showing up!
Now, we start to filter the sires. This is easily done by simply selecting the SIRE filter from the RUNNERS tab in GeeGeez Query Tool and clicking on GENERATE REPORT.
This give us a complete list of all Polytrack sire progeny that have raced at Kempton, Lingfield and Chelmsford since the start of 2014.
As you can see, backing all runners would have resulted in a -£19,000 loss and -26% ROI, so we need to filter this list.
You really want a decent sample size and to see profitability from sires. I start by a minimum of 5 runs and 5 wins, 10% win strike-rate, minimum +10 win and place PL, A/E (Actual v Expected Ratio) and IV (Impact Value) minimum of 0. There is more info on A/E and IV, as well as other detailed reporting features available in GeeGeez Gold, on this GeeGeez blog post.
Anyway, the applied filters and shortlist of profitable sires looks like the screenshot below.
Next thing we do is click the little plus sign + next to each sire name to add them to our Angle to track. We can then save the Angle with an appropriate name. In this case, PolytrackSires12thDec.
I have started to put the date into my angles so I can track their future performance easier by amending the start date to track the current performance.
Now, this simply Polytrack sires angle alone, since 2014 has shown a 17% Win Strike-Rate, +562pts profit and a 39% ROI, which is pretty exceptional for just a sire system. Also, a few of these go in at big-prices and the BetfairSP on these runners are usually inflated, on average by 10% but a little higher for the longshots, so profits will be significantly higher at BetfairSP, which is always my recommend method of betting. You don't need to shop around for bookmaker best prices and worry about restrictions then – it's a real relief and keeps things simply, including results expectations.
It produced a nice 16/1 winner with GO WELL SPICY at Lingfield last week which paid 25 BetfairSP and is a 42% improvement on Official Starting Price, even accounting for a max 5% Betfair commission!
Now, that is quite a few bets – you may notice a few running at Chelmsford next few days in the screenshot below, one today at 33/1!
POLYTRACK SYSTEM 2 – Sires and Trainers
Now, there is another approach where we combined good sires with profitable trainers that have shown profits with those progeny on the Polytrack surfaces. Often, an unprofitable sire, with a decent win-rate and A/E and IV, can become profitable if placed in the right training hands.
FILTERING SIRES – positive A/E and IV, forgetting profitability for now.
Now, building this 2nd system, for more selectivity, is the exact same steps as above, all we need to do is take out the filter for the Win and Place Minimum profit, set the minimum A/E and IV to 1 and then add those sires to our list for the 2nd system. So our filters now look like this for system 2 – Siress have a minimum of 5 runs and 5 wins, A/E (Actual v Expected Ratio) and IV (Impact Value) minimum of 1.
Once we have added these filters, we select the SIRE tab and GENERATE the report. We then click the + button to add these to this Angle, which we will call PolytrackTrainerAndSire12thDec and it looks like the screenshot below, which, even with a 14% strike-rate, are actually +18pts in profit, but a measly 0.8% ROI can be improved upon.
Now, we need to look at all the trainers that can actually turn these sires profitable. Some of the sires already are and will continue to be, many will be dropped but it's a good filtering technique if you want to improve profitability and selectivity.
Select TRAINER from the RUNNER tab and click on GENERATE REPORT, we get a list of trainers that have trained these sires on the Polytrack.
Now, with trainers I want to see profitability with these sires and I also want to increase the Runs and Wins sample sizes. So the filters for TRAINERS look like the following, once applied.
As we can see, this system has produced mammoth profits since 2014. Not only does it have a 20% strike-rate, which is a little easier on the confidence but the profits are +939pts with a 48% ROI! Add that into the +650pts profit from the Tapeta and Polytrack Sire only system and you have over +1800pts profit over 6 years!
This landed 12/1 winner (available at 14/1) FIELD OF DREAMS at Lingfield yesterday, as well as 4/1 winner ROMAN SPINNER. Last weke there was a 25/1 winner BRUNEL CHARM at Kempton which paid 36.78 BetfairSP (a 36% improvement over Industry Starting Price!) so you can see, again profits are actually much higher at BetfairSP.
The filtered trainers, of those sires, can be seen in the screenshot below.
Again, we can see a list of upcoming qualifiers on this system in the VIEW RUNNERS tab in Query Tool – you might see that 12/1 qualifier at Chelmsford later if you look closely enough!
In fact it gets even easier to track these runners. They are not only flagged on the racecards as you can see below. Bear in mind, that the profits quoted for the sire angles are for the overall proftability, not just for that individual trainer/sire. You can though, look at individual trainers/sires to gain confidence, or not, in a potential bet. In the example below THE GILL BROTHERS, in the 5:20 at Chelmsford today, hits both the sire and sire/trainer combo as well as being picked up by the GeeGeez sire snippets on both All Weather AND distance range. This can give additional strength, bearing in mind the ‘All-Weather' stats here do not, I believe, differentiate between surfaces. It's still good to know.
but there is also a QT Report that you can run that shows qualifiers for ALL your saved Angles, also shown below.
This is perfect and a massive time-saver – I run test systems that I track alongside live ones and I also test filtered versions of the ones above, for example check out a CLASS filter on the above systems, as well as some DISTANCE filters – but that is for you to investigate. As you can see, I am currently testing and monitoring a few jumps-based systems. They don't appear to work anywhere near as well as the All-Weather Sire or Sire/Trainer angle, it's early days, but the all-weather is where my focus and investments are, alongside my own ratings selections.
If you are not using GeeGeez Gold for this kind of research and monitoring of Angles, then you are missing out on potentially massive profits, and from discovering your own angles that the crowd ignores. Ultimately, you are not up against the bookmakers, but against other punters – so you need to get an edge over those punters that are lazy and don't do this kind of research.
You can join GeeGeez Gold for just £1 for your first 30-days here and play around for as long as you want to build your betting angle portfolio, to boost your bankroll and improve your overall profitability and intelligence as a punter. I mean, who couldn't do with an average +300pts extra profit each year on the All-Weather by following 3 simple systems?